Survey: Voter turnout of around 60 percent likely in Tallinn
A total of 52 percent of voters in Tallinn definitely plan to vote in the local government council elections next month, while another 28 percent of voters likely will, according to the results of a survey recently conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. June's figures were 50 and 28 percent, respectively.
As the results of the most recent local government council elections show, actual voter turnout tends to be somewhat higher than the percentage of respondents who indicated that they definitely planned to vote. Of those who indicate that they will likely vote, only some — at best, one third — actually end up doing so. Thus, the pollster expects a voter turnout of just over 60 percent in the Oct. 15 elections in Tallinn.
12 percent of respondents indicated they were unlikely or definitely not planning to vote, while six percent of respondents were unable to say whether they would vote. Two percent claimed they did not have the right to vote. These last respondents were individuals who do not possess Estonian citizenship but apparently did not know that they still have the right to vote in local elections.
The lowest voter turnout can be expected among those under 34 years of age — just 40 percent thereof definitely plan to vote next month, while a quarter of this age group indicated they would likely vote.
Of the 35-44 age group, half definitely plan on voting in the elections, while nearly 60 percent or more of respondents aged 45 or older intend to go vote.
Estonians, better educated more likely to vote
57 percent of Estonians definitely plan on voting next month, while 46 percent of respondents of other nationalities intend to do the same. 56 percent of Estonian citizens, 45 percent of Russian citizens and just 30 percent of Tallinn residents of undetermined citizenship definitely intend to go vote.
Voter turnout is also affected by respondents' level of education and income. 62 percent of those with higher education definitely intend to vote next month, while 47 percent of those with secondary education and just 38 percent of those with primary or basic education tend to do the same.
42 percent of voters whose average monthly household income per member falls below €300 definitely intend to vote; this number climbs to 56 percent among voters whose average exceeds €650 per month.
The city district of Nõmme is expected to boast the highest voter turnout (65 percent definitely intend to vote), Pirita (62 percent), Central Tallinn (57 percent) and Põhja-Tallinn (57 percent), while the lowest voter turnout is expected in Mustamäe, Lasnamäe and Haabersti (46 percent).
The most likely to turn out to vote are supporters of the election coalition Free Citizen of Tallinn — 92 percent thereof definitely intend to vote in the elections next month. Higher voter turnout can also be expected among supporters of the Reform Party (68 percent), the Estonian Greens (68 percent), the Social Democratic Party (SDE, 64 percent) and the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL, 62 percent).
57 percent of Center Party supporters definitely intend to vote next month, while 47 percent of supporters of the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Savisaar Election Coalition and Active Tallinn definitely intend to do the same.
Early and online voting in this fall's local government council elections is scheduled to begin on Oct. 5; Election Day is Oct. 15.
Editor: Aili Vahtla