The Center Party has gained 5 percent over the last month, while support for the Reform Party and the Social Democrats, both in opposition in the capital, has most recently shrunk. Reform is at 15 percent support, and the Social Democrats at 9 percent.

The Estonian Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) is currently at 8 percent, which makes it likely that they will exceed the 5-percent threshold and get mandates on the city council this Sunday.

The Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL), campaigning on an anti-corruption platform and like EKRE and the Reform Party aiming to topple the majority of the Center Party on the city council, is at exactly 5 percent support like it was in September.

As the current elections’ largest independent coalition, the combined list of Active Tallinn and Savisaar’s Election Coalition has currently just 4 percent support, a disappointing result considering Savisaar’s past successes in the city.

The survey also showed the Estonian Greens below the election threshold at currently 3 percent, and independent coalition Vaba Tallinna kodanik (“Free citizen of Tallinn”) at 2 percent support. Support for the remainder of candidates, coalitions, and parties is similarly low.

Center Party very close to council majority

Taking into account only those respondents who are both entitled to vote and confirmed to the interviewers that they intend to go to the polls this year, the Center Party’s support is at 48 percent.

Under the same conditions, support for Reform is at 17 percent, for the Social Democrats at 10 percent, for EKRE at 8 percent, and for IRL at 7 percent, which means that all of the other parties will gain significantly compared to the last local elections.

Among respondents who can vote and have confirmed their intent to do it, the remainder of the lists is less popular, with the Estonian Greens, Tegus Tallinn/Savisaar’s Election Coalition, and Vaba Tallinna kodanik all below the 5-percent threshold.

Significant differences between voter groups

The Center Party is again very popular among Tallinn’s Russian speakers, 82 percent of which have expressed this preference according to the survey. Despite Edgar Savisaar’s past popularity with this same group, his and Active Tallinn’s list has no more than 6 percent support.

Among Estonian speakers, Reform is leading the field with 27 percent support. Support of the parties among Estonians is very fragmented, with the Center Party coming in second at 18 percent, followed by EKRE and the Social Democrats both at 15 and IRL at 10 percent.

The survey was carried out by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR between Oct. 2 and Oct. 10. 1,012 respondents were interviewed.