Swedbank lowers Estonia's 2019 economic growth forecast to 3.2 percent ({{contentCtrl.commentsTotal}})

Swedbank Estonia.
Swedbank Estonia. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR

In its latest economic outlook, Swedbank has lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast for Estonia by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2 percent.

In 2020, Estonia's economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.1 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than the 2.3 percent forecast its previous estimate published in August.

The bank left its growth estimate for 2021 unchanged at 2.5 percent.

The estimate concerning growth in household consumption this year was lowered by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6 percent; the estimate for 2020, meanwhile, was lowered to 2.3 percent, and for 2021 to 2 percent.

The estimate for growth in the consumer price index (CPI) this year was increased from 2.3 to 2.4 percent, while the estimates for the next two years were left unchanged at 2.3 and 2.2 percent, respectively.

Estimated unemployment rates were likewise left unchanged at 4.9 percent, 5.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.

The rate of increase in employment was left unchanged at 0.3 percent for this year, and is forecast to decelerate to zero in 2020 and reach 0.2 percent again in 2021.

Exports of goods and services are forecast to grow 3.7 percent this year, down 0.4 percentage points from the bank's August forecast. Estimates for 2020 and 2021 were likewise lowered, from 4 percent to 3.5 percent and from 5 percent to 4.6 percent, respectively.

The forecast for imports for 2019 was reduced by 1 percentage point to 3.5 percent, for 2020 by 0.8 percentage points to 3.7 percent, and for 2021 by 0.6 percentage points to 5 percent.

Swedbank lowered its economic growth outlook for Latvia this year by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3 percent, leaving its forecasts for 2020 and 2021 unchanged at 2 and 2.5 percent, respectively.

Its outlook for Lithuania remained unchanged for all three years at 3.7 percent, 2 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.

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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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