IMF raises Estonia's 2019 economic growth forecast to 3.2 percent

IMF. Source: Reuters/Scanpix

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2019 economic growth forecast for Estonia by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent.

In its summer forecast, the IMF estimated the Estonian economy would grow 3 percent this year.

In its latest forecast, the IMF leaves the growth forecast for 2020 unchanged at 2.9 percent.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, Estonia's GDP is forecast to grow by 2.1 percent. The growth rate in the final quarter of 2020 is forecast hit 3.4 percent.

The consumer price index (CPI) in Estonia is estimated to increase 2.5 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2020. In the fourth quarter, inflation is estimated to equal full-year inflation in both years, hitting 2.5 and 2.4 percent, respectively.

Estonia is expected to run a current account surplus of 0.7 percent of GDP this year and 0.3 percent of GDP in 2020.

Unemployment, meanwhile, is forecast to decline by 0.7 percentage points to 4.7 percent this year and remain steady in 2020.

Global growth set at 3 percent

The IMF's latest forecast predicts global growth of 3 percent this year, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast in July and sharply below the 3.6 percent growth of 2018. It is projecting modest 2.4 percent growth in the U.S. this year, down from 2.9 percent in 2018.

Next year, the fund foresees a rebound for the world economy to 3.4 percent growth, but a further slowdown in the U.S. to 2.1 percent, far below the 3 percent growth forecast by the Trump administration.

The IMF's forecast predicts that about half of the increase in growth expected next year will result from recoveries in countries where economies slowed significantly this year, such as Mexico, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

This year's slowdown was caused largely by trade disputes, which resulted in higher tariffs being imposed on many goods, the IMF explained. Growth in trade in the first half of this year slowed to 1 percent, the weakest annual pace seen since 2012.

Latvian growth to slow, Lithuanian to increase

The IMF cut its 2019 growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4 percentage points and 2020 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8 percent in both years.

Its forecast for Lithuania, meanwhile, was raised by 0.5 percentage points to 3.4 percent in 2019 and 0.1 percentage points to 2.7 percent in 2020.


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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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