Party ratings: Support for Reform falls to lowest since 2019

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Reform en route to submitting its candidate list with the electoral commission. Source: Siim Lõvi/ERR

The governing Reform Party's level of support has fallen to its lowest since February 2019, results of a new survey published by Norstat Eesti AS show.

The Reform Party, the largest party in the current coalition, saw a 1 percent drop in support to 28.2 percent. EKRE follows on 21.8 percent and the Center Party on 20 percent.  

The difference between Reform and EKRE was 6.4 percent, which is the smallest the gap has ever been.  

Eesti 200 were the fourth most popular with 12.4 percent of the votes, then the Social Democratic Party (SDE) on 8.3 percent - the highest since April - and Isamaa on 5.4 percent.

The coalition parties - Reform and Center - have a total of 48.2 percent support and the opposition's support totals 35.5 percent.

Researcher Martin Mölder said that the only major change this week is the continued decline in the support of the Reform Party.

"Although their current downward trend has been going on since the beginning of March, the decline in support over the last month stands out in that it has occurred in the context of an increase in the overall share of citizens with a preference. The 'cooling down' of the electorate since the change of government has been replaced by reactivation, and these voters have not moved into the ranks of the Reform Party, but its rivals. The bonus of forming a government has disappeared and we are currently seeing how the Reform Party has started to lose support due to being in government," Mölder said.

According to Mölder, at the other end of the rankings, it can be seen that the slow but steady increase in support for the Social Democrats continues. "They have secured their support first and foremost among their core voters - young, highly educated and women, and among voters without children. The Social Democrats have increased their support to 8.3 percent. The last time it was so high was in the fall of last year," Molder added

A total of 4,001 citizens took part in the poll, which covers the period from May 26 to June 21. It was carried out by phone and online by Norstat and MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut.  

Between October 2016 and January 2021 the Reform Party was part of the opposition, not the government, and saw its level of support reach record high levels, especially during the Center/Isamaa/EKRE government.

EKRE was a member of the governing coalition between April 2019 and January 2021 and has seen its support rise this year while it has been in opposition.

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Editor: Helen Wright

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