LHV bank economic analyst Kristo Aab said that price growth is likely to continue until the end of this year. Energy prices and the money released from the second pillar play a role in this. Aab said that the price ceiling has now been reached in the oil market.
Aab said that there is no reason to attribute the price increase to the large money supply resulting from the crisis. "It's really unusual to see such a high inflation rate, we last saw it in 2011. But it was actually expected that the rate of price growth will increase even more than in June. If we look at the price growth that makes it up, there are still a few commodity groups. The details that have driven this price increase so fast. Although they cannot be directly related to money printing, there are oil prices, energy prices that have driven this pace at the moment," he said.
Aab said that the price of oil has reached its optimal level by now, and no longer growth is expected. "He fluctuates at US$70 a barrel and history has shown that this is such a more or less normal level for him," he said.
If the price of oil continues to rise, Aab said, it will not remain at a higher level. "History has shown that the price of oil has never been higher than the current price level for a very long time. It has come down from higher levels relatively quickly."
The same cannot be said for energy prices, which were at a record high in July. "Today, as more and more energy from renewable sources is used, it has become increasingly volatile," said Aab.
Oil shale energy production is becoming more expensive, on the other hand, volatility is what makes the price play. "Sometimes the production of energy from renewable sources can be very cheap, while there has been a dry summer, there is no wind, the water level is low, there is definitely a bit more supply side constraint and it affects the price," Aab said.
He added that the rapid rise in prices may continue until the end of the year. "I do not dare to suggest that it could remain at the level of 5 percent, as in July. more on energy or oil prices, but still on consumer prices. But I believe that this price increase may not be so high as a result. "
"In the context of economic growth in general, it must also be taken into account that we compare the annual numbers with 2020, which was a very poor and difficult year, i.e. the base effect also plays a role here," Aab said.
According to Statistics Estonia, consumer prices rose by 1.1 percent in July this year compared to June and by 5 percent compared with July last year. Prices were most affected by electricity, which was almost 54 percent more expensive than a year earlier.
Compared with July last year, goods were 3.3 percent, and services 8.1 percent, more expensive this year.
Editor: Roberta Vaino