Sunday will see Finland's total power output increase, which should bring prices down somewhat from August highs in the next week, Eesti Energia forecasts. But the price drop will not be abrupt, energy expert Marko Allikson warns.
Estonia usually imports cheaper power from Finland, while nuclear plant repairs forced Estonia's northern neighbor to import more expensive electricity in its turn in August, which also hiked prices in Estonia.
On August 21, electricity cost 29.2 cents per kilowatt-hour in Estonia for the highest level this year.
"There was a week during which power moved from Latvia and Lithuania to Estonia and again to Finland, meaning that prices were higher in the latter two countries," Allikson said.
Sunday should see the Olkiluoto 2 nuclear reactor return to service in Finland, followed by the Loviisa 2 reactor in the second half of the week. This should reverse the flow of electricity and return the status quo.
Eesti Energia believes this will cause prices to drop in Estonia next week.
"We can make that forecast today since windy weather has returned. It's windier than it has been for sure. (The August price hike also had to do with wind power shortages – ed.). Two nuclear reactors will also come back online in Finland. We believe the price will come down to below August levels," said Armen Kasparov, head of energy services for Estonia's state energy company.
But Marko Allikson believes the price will only fall a little. "It will fall to some extent, with power becoming cheaper in Finland. But because the [power] links between Finland and Sweden are still very limited... If we look at the prices in northern Sweden versus Finland, the former are much cheaper compared to the latter today. The situation was just the opposite a month ago."
Import shortage will keep prices high in Finland, Allikson added. Rather, we should see the difference in prices in Finland and Estonia grow next week.
"Therefore, we will not see a return to very cheap prices. But there will be a price difference between Estonia and Finland, unfortunately, to the benefit of the latter," Allikson said.
Editor: Marcus Turovski
Source: Aktuaalne kaamera