"Six months into the war, Russia was losing, and they probably should have lost.
Looking back, that was a moment when Ukraine was gaining territory.
The offensives in the fall of 2022 brought back more than half of the territory that Russia had taken in the winter and spring of that year. It's also the time when Elon Musk decided that Ukraine shouldn't have access to Starlink. This was also the time when the Americans made some very questionable decisions about arms supplies, which I believe were based on a mistaken view of the risks of nuclear escalation. So I think I was right then. I think Ukraine was winning then, and probably the war should have ended in 2022. The fact that it went on had to do with mistakes on our side," the professor told Monday's "Välisilm".

"If you took just an economic approach, there's really no way that Russia should be in this war. Their economy is so much smaller than Europe's, so much smaller than Europe's and North America's together. Or, to make a similar point, it is extraordinary what Ukraine is doing, given that their economy is less than 0.5 percent of the size of the economies of the members of NATO. Ukraine, with its small economy, is actually performing NATO's entire task. Whether that economic advantage translates into a military advantage depends on our ability to articulate our arguments and comprehend our strategic position. You're right, it's not guaranteed to happen [that Ukraine wins], but it should happen because the war in Ukraine is so very important, not just in itself, but for preventing other worse things from happening. Whatever the costs of supporting Ukraine, those costs will be a hundred times greater if we let Ukraine lose," Snyder said.

"Välisilm" presenter Maria-Ann Rohemäe: Have we, and I mean Western societies, self-deterred?

Timothy Snyder: There's been a lot of self-deterrence, there's also been a lot of, you know, a lot of self-patting on the back, rather treating weapon systems as kind of virtue signaling, like we're doing this because we want to be on the right side, we want to keep you fighting, as opposed to thinking, well, what would they actually need.

What would they actually need in order to win this war? This, I believe, is the sole rational perspective on these matters.

Why are we so scared?

We struggle to understand that other countries possess genuine agency and, therefore, bear responsibility.

And this is a problem with you vis-à-vis Ukraine. But it's also a problem vis-à-vis Russia. Because if Russia makes a mess, if Russia invades a country, if Russia loses a war, that's their problem. That's their choice. That's their decision. They've chosen to pour their resources into this idiotic criminal war of aggression.

It's their problem, not ours, if they lose the war. But at the same time, Americans have a tendency to think that whatever happens in the world is somehow our fault or our responsibility. And so the Russians take advantage of that, and they say, Oh, it's going to be terrible and chaotic for everyone if they lose the war.

The European Union, the United States, Canada, and other democratic systems – South Korea, Japan – are actually doing extremely well; taken together, they're extremely powerful.

But whether that power translates into action depends on how we think about things. And so what stops us from being what we might become, or stops us, in this case, from winning a war, has to do with that evaluative space, that psychological space.

If Ukraine wins this war, what will the world look like then?

We are on a timeline, which has to do with Ukraine's resistance.

If Ukraine hadn't resisted, if Russia had in fact conquered [Ukraine], if Zelenskyy had left the country, if the government had fled, if Russia was in control of most of Ukraine, we would be in a very different world now.

We'd be in a world where, for example, European and Asian countries are building nuclear weapons.

We'd be in a world where the European integration project was very much in doubt.

NATO would face significant challenges in our world.

We'd be in a world where, in general, autocracies are much more sure of themselves than they are right now.

We'd be in a world where the principle of international law that countries can't invade other countries has been shown to be false.

We'd very likely be in a world where China was about to make a move in the Pacific.

Therefore, the reason we're not denying the existence of those events is due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

So that's the answer to your question. If Ukraine loses, everything that I've just listed stops being true.

Ukrainians are keeping it, to switch metaphors, they're keeping all these balls up in the air for us, and we don't give them enough credit.

If they lose, all those balls will hit the floor.

If they win, then everybody has a new project, which is European integration, which is NATO integration, and if they win, then there's some chance for Russia.

Listen to Timothy Snyder's Lennart Meri Lecture 2024 in the link below.

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