The Norwegian Police Security Service has recently of an increased threat level due to Norway's weapons deliveries to Ukraine and the growing activity of Russian intelligence activities.

"The report includes a warning concerning the general threat level. This is based on the conviction that Russia sees carrying out acts of sabotage in Europe in order to weaken Ukraine's defensive capacity as beneficial. Sabotage helps create uncertainty and dissatisfaction, which deters European countries from donating weapons and otherwise helping Ukraine," Inger Haugland, head of the service's counterintelligence unit, said.

"The Russians have invested a lot in shaping mindsets in Italy over the past decade. Not just in Italy, but especially there, since Italy is more vulnerable to Russia's narratives for cultural and historical reasons. Saying that by helping Ukraine militarily we are pushing the world toward nuclear war. It is another narrative you hear from pro-Russian influencers in Italy," said Luigi Sergio Germani, head of the Gino Germani Research Institute.

We can add to these claims that the war is NATO's fault for trying to encircle Russia. Or the fault of the Baltics and Poland for being paranoid and pressuring the West into provoking Russia. The government is not fighting these narratives, even in a situation where half of the Italian people are in favor of helping Ukraine, Germani said.

"A person running in the European Parliament elections hinted that Ukraine would do well to surrender. The keyword in Russia's narrative, which many are now repeating, is that we need peace. That helping Ukraine means war in Europe. That we need peace instead of war," the director went on.

Because Europe has expelled a number of Russian spies, the Kremlin has changed tactics and is recruiting locals or compatriots who have moved abroad when launching narratives.

In Poland, 12 people were arrested after they attacked people and set fire to buildings, such as a major shopping center in Warsaw. The Polish government wants to give its intelligence services an extra €25 million because of the increased threat level. Poland has also decided to erect new infrastructure on its border with Russia and recreate the previous government's committee to coordinate information on Russia's influence activities. It is headed by the country's military counterintelligence chief.

"The committee is not an investigative one, it doesn't have such rights. It doesn't summon anyone. The committee analyzes the kinds of materials and documents all security services and the prosecution have. It also includes media analysis because it is not the purpose of the committee to look and hunt for culprits," said Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The Moldovan parliament decided last week to hold a presidential election and a referendum for joining the EU on October 20. Preparations are underway for ensuring the security of voting for which Moldova is using the help of Estonia's e-Governance Academy. When border guards seized €10,000 meant for subversive acts from persons who came from Moscow, the country's websites came under cyberattack for 36 straight hours.

"We lost all the data we had in two hospitals. The president's website was also breached, with disinformation and misinformation posted there," said Alexandru Coretchi, head of government communication and security for Moldova.

In another attack, the national mail carrier was disabled, and letters and packages could not be sent for a time. When the president of Moldova's autonomous Gagauzia region met Vladimir Putin, twelve hours of cyberattacks and misinformation posted everywhere followed.

"We know that in order to be in the EU one does not have to be a NATO ally, but they informed the Gagauzians and Transnistrians that it is a must," Coretchi said.

Russia tried to sow confusion by seeking to redraw borders in the Baltic Sea, both concerning Lithuania and Finland, but the Finns kept their cool. "We need to prepare ourselves for continued hybrid operations by Russia, not necessarily on a daily basis, but weekly, and in different ways," President Alexander Stubb said.

Data from Germany's Federal Ministry of the Interior suggests politically motivated crime grew last year. Of 60,000 registered cases, nearly half are associated with right-wing extremism for an uptick of 23 percent. Registered attacks by radical left-wing groups came to 7,777, up 11 percent. Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser said that the attacks are aimed against open or liberal society.

It may be difficult to see how the attacks are interconnected, but what they have in common is the Kremlin regime that is fighting Europe at all levels. The European Union has 27 members all with their own ways of responding. Another looming concern is football world championships and the Paris Olympics this summer.

"So, we're safer than we were, but there's always that risk that we have to be right every time, while the terrorist only has to get it right once," said Matthew Kroening, vice president of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

"Here I'm more worried of something happening in the context of Israel's war in Gaza rather than Russia's war in Ukraine, but who knows. There are also new technological capabilities, think about drones, which can make terrorist attacks easier or more effective. All that being said, I know that security services are very well aware of all this," said Ulrike Franke, senior researcher with the European Foreign Relations Council.

Eerik-Niiles Kross: Estonia is no exception

Security analyst Eerik-Niiles Kross told "Välisilm" that Russia is trying to sow confusion in many countries, and Estonia is no different.

"On one hand, it appears that something like stealing border markers is quite unique, while it actually fits right in with the broader pattern. Russia has been tampering with the border in Norway, with little green men-like incidents, individual persons crossing the border, or a parade in Svalbard. It has tried its luck with the borders of Finland and Lithuania, so I would not put Estonia in a special category here," Kross said.

He said that in some ways, Russia has even been more restrained in Estonia than in some other countries.

"Looking at the big picture – it is possible that Estonian security services, counterintelligence, the Internal Security Service (ISS) and others are simply a little better, a little more attentive than they are elsewhere in Europe, but I would say that the Russians have been more restrained in Estonia than several larger countries even. But the threat level concerning such incidents is also elevated in Estonia, which is not the same thing as the threat of war. It can also be seen as Russians being worried over Ukraine, coming to realize they won't hold out much longer either," the analyst told the show.

Kross believes that Russia has pulled out all the stops when it comes to its ability to disrupt other countries.

"The agents who haven't been caught yet have been activated, while new ones are being trained /.../ Such things were done before, incidents were almost constant also in 2014-2022, including in NATO territory. There were murders of people considered enemies, there were hybrid attacks, such as the case in France where plain-clothed GRU agents posed as football hooligans. These things happened. But even if Western security services saw the pattern, it was not admitted publicly. Probably also following political considerations of not escalating matters," Kross suggested.

"And proving things can be difficult in such cases. The Russians often manage to do these things with it being impossible to conclusively prove it was them, and a mild-mannered Western person can't just out and say it. Of course, these things have become much more frequent, and the situation is escalating. One danger with such operations is that societies get used to them and you'll need to turn up the heat to make sure people stay scared," he also said.

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