Kannik: Putin's fear of rebellion could be behind arrests of Russian generals

Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), says the arrests of Russia's defense ministry and military leadership may be related to Vladimir Putin's fear of rebellion.
The arrests began last month with Russia's deputy defense minister, and now several other people from the Defense Ministry and the military have been arrested. All are accused of corruption.
However, according to Kannik, this is not the main reason for the changes. He believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is unhappy with the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
"Of course, we can't get inside Putin's head, so we can't say for sure, but dictators tend to become more and more paranoid as time goes on, and so it's a very real possibility that he does believe that there is a grouping within the military that is considering removing him from power and that this is perhaps a step to dissolve the military leadership and restore relations so that there can't even be a theoretical attempt at an uprising," he said.
Kannik said that the changes in leadership could have a short-term negative impact on Russia's combat capabilities and give the Ukrainians some breathing space.
"When there's a lot of confusion, no one knows who's going to stay in office, people are primarily concerned with securing and defending their positions, they have less time to deal with planning and managing the war. In the long run, I personally don't think that one Russian general is significantly better or worse than another Russian general, so I don't think it will have any effect [on the war] in the long run," Kannik said.
"The impact on battlefield operations is usually not direct. A change of command, whether planned or unplanned, does not usually have a direct impact on such tactics or combat behavior," said Col. Janno Märk, the deputy chief of staff for operations.
What is clear, however, is that Russia is trying to spend war money wisely, as the new defense minister is also an economist.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Kristina Kersa