Maj. Gen. Väli: Russian reserve deployment may mean renewed Russian Kharkiv strike

The Russian attempt to open a new front towards Kharkiv backfired due to the insufficient number of troops committed.
The reopening of the front towards Kharkiv by Russia may have initially taken the Ukrainians by surprise, but the initial wave of assault has now been stemmed, security expert and reservist Major General Neeme Väli has said.
However, the arrival of reinforcements likely indicates the start of a second wave of assaults in the vicinity, he added.
Reserves have been brought in, counterattacks launched in some sectors, while, in one locale, Russian forces have reportedly been pushed back to the sovereign borders, Väli said.
Appearing on ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Väli said: "That Ukrainian forces were not fully prepared for the Russian incursion into the Kharkiv region was somewhat surprising."
"I believe one reason for this was that, whilst a concentration of Russian forces near the border was observed, the assumption was that the force was not large enough to initiate any attack," he went on.
"That miscalculation has also cost the Russians, as they have now run out of resources, so to continue the offensive, they will need to bring in fresh troops. Statements have it that they aim to increase their numbers to 50,000 or even 70,000 men," Väli added.
Väli said that Russian down time, taken in order to regroup, will provide the Ukrainians with the breathing space to bring in their own reserves and to make use of the latest western military aid that is starting to trickle in.
As for possible Russian objectives, Väli said that one aim was to extend the front line, spreading more thinly and so putting a strain on Ukrainian resources, since Ukraine also faces challenges in sending personnel to the front.

He said: "Another crucial objective was to create a buffer zone near Belgorod to prevent Ukrainians from attacking Belgorod so frequently," referring to a large Russian city around 40 kilometers north of the Ukraine-Russia border.
"A second wave of assaults by Russian forces is likely, but it is not out of the quest that will coincide with the peace conference in Switzerland," Väli added.
In any case, Russian forces have not yet reached Kharkiv close enough to be able to bombard the city, with a peacetime population of 1.4 million, with tube artillery.
They need to advance at least 25 kilometers closer to the city than they currently are, to do so, Väli said.
"This would be the range at which the Russians could utilize their firepower more broadly towards the city," he added.
Until any reserves arrive, the Russians are consolidating the buffer zone around Belgorod, meaning no active advance towards Kharkiv is expected, Väli concluded.
Mid-month this month and following the May 9 "Victory" Day, Russian forces once again violated an international border, to the north of Kharkiv, something they had done at the outset of the invasion in February 2022.
Ukraine's September 2022 counter-offensive subsequently drove Russian forces out of the area, while as so often in this conflict, Russia miscalculated Ukrainian resistance, or the extent to which the predominantly Russian-speaking local populace would back the invasion despite being in the firing line.
Tying down resources to "administer" occupied territory would also be a consideration for the Russians.
The current Russian incursion came as somewhat of a surprise, and though tactically and even strategically significant, its aims may be multi-faceted depending on how it pans out and what happens elsewhere.
For instance, Russia may want to set up a gray zone, or buffer zone, which would among other things act as a hedge against Ukrainian strikes in the other direction and into Russian territory – Kharkiv city around 40 kilometers from the border.
Russian forces may also be probing the Ukrainians, or even attempting to set up a unified front that would stretch in an anti-clockwise direction all the way round the eastern border regions and down to occupied Crimea. On the other hand, the destruction of bridges and other infrastructure by Russian forces will not always work in favor of this.
Ultimately Russia had a window of opportunity – thoughts of a hurry to match the offensive with May 9 were likely a red herring – ahead of more Western aid arriving, as Väli had noted, and also of further Ukrainian conscription rounds.
An interactive map of the front updated in real-time is here.
The high-level summit – quite literally – will take place at a top hotel above Lake Lucerne in central Switzerland mid-month next month. It is not clear yet if U.S. President Joe Biden will be attending or not.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
Source: 'Ukraina stuudio,' interviewer Maria-Ann Rohemäe.