In a post on social media, Madison said that a new group would be formed from those in his current group and would be made up of parties that share his views on issues such as migration and the green turn, "however, on Russia we are in a completely different world."

Speaking to ERR on Thursday, Madison also stressed that the founders of the new European Patriots group of MEPs, which is being formed from those who are currently members of Identity and Democracy (ID), have not taken into account the interests of the smaller countries at all and had made decisions without consulting others.

At the same time, a number of people who spoke to ERR and who are familiar with the inner workings of the European Parliament said that the ID group had essentially become politically isolated due to the so-called cordon sanitaire, which meant that its MEPs did not get important position as heads of committees and delegations. It is expected that a similar approach would be taken toward the European Patriots group.

The main justification for such a stance was said to be that ID is inherently opposed to the European Union, unlike, for example, the extreme left, which may also have expressed unconventional views but did not question the need for the EU.

Another and more moderate group of right-wing MEPs, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), was not treated in the same way in the European Parliament. Ursula von der Leyen, who is a member of the European People's Party (EPP) and is running for re-election as president of the European Commission, has even expressed an interest in garnering the ECR's support to bolster her efforts.

Madison's sudden change of political group in the European Parliament (he had told ERR on Monday that he would continue in ID) also came after an informal deadline of Thursday had been set for internal agreement on the leadership of the parliament's new leadership. As this will be done using the D'Hondt method, (also known as the Jefferson method or the greatest divisors method), which is the same system used in Estonian elections, the number of members in each political group will play an important role.

Confusion on the right

However, there is confusion among the right-wing parties in the European Parliament that have opted not to join the ECR, and it remains unclear at this stage how many different new groups will end up being formed.

The ID group may even cease to exist altogether, with the European Patriots group emerging in its place, as was announced at the weekend by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who leads Fidesz, Austrian Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickl and former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš who head the ANO party.

Between them, those three parties ought to have no difficulty in getting the 23 MEPs needed, which is one of the prerequisites for forming a group. However, they will also need members from at least four other countries to meet EU requirements. The European Patriots have moved closer to that goal in recent days, with the Portuguese party Chega announcing its intention to join, and the leader of the Italian Lega Party Matteo Salvini also expressing interest, EUobserver wrote on Thursday. However, Lega has not yet formally announced its withdrawal from ID. The European Patriots additionally hope to be joined by France's National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, which until now has been a member of the ID group. Should RN agree to the move, Belgian party Vlaams Belang and the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) would likely follow suit.

The confusion on the far right is also evidenced by the fact that the first meeting of the ID group's MEPs, originally scheduled for Thursday, has now been postponed to Monday, July 8. The European Patriots will also hold their inaugural session on the same day, Dave Sinardet, professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels, told EUobserver.

One of the reasons for this is believed to be the upcoming second round of French parliamentary elections this Sunday, in which Marine Le Pen is hoping to achieve a historic victory. "They obviously don't want to influence the French election campaign with these types of decisions. But I don't believe that they haven't already made up their mind," Sinardet told EUobserver.

However, the biggest loser in the current re-shuffle could be the far right German party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which was kicked out of the ID at the end of the last parliamentary term at Le Pen's insistence. Should Viktor Orbán for instance want to invite them to team up with the European Patriots group, Le Pen's National Rally would be expected to oppose him.

In the absence of any sign of progress towards the formation of an even more extreme right-wing group "The Sovereignists," which would include the far-right parties of Bulgaria and Romania, the AfD may well remain a non-aligned political force in the European Parliament, EUobserver noted.

The opening session of the next iteration of the European Parliament is on July 16.

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