It is beyond doubt that the Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, have been the most successful former Soviet republics, both in terms of economic development and efforts to develop democracy. All three celebrated the restoration of independence last week, which is why it is a fitting time to hark back to some of the reasons that put these states on a different path than Moldova, Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine or even Kazakhstan.

Economists and social scientists have spent a long time analyzing the reasons for the Baltics' success. Bold market economy reforms in the 1990s, geographical nearness to the Nordics, joining the EU and other factors are highlighted. And yet, one of the most important catalysts is often overlooked: all three countries managed in good time to distance themselves from Russia, the so-called Russian world and their Soviet past – the corresponding values, mentality and institutions.

So, what did the slogan "away from Russia, away from the Soviet past" really mean? In economic terms, it meant plotting a course for Western-style market economy and efforts to introduce corresponding business culture as well as to avoid so-called oligarchical capitalism, which was widespread in post-Soviet states at the time and usually results in unchecked corruption, abuse of bureaucratic discretion and tycoons relentlessly meddling in politics.

In politics, it meant avoiding strong presidential authority, which could have seamlessly led to authoritarianism. The Soviet element was removed from the state apparatus, and the rule of law became the load-bearing pillar of the new system. Society was relatively quick to adopt Western values, with Soviet nostalgia and corresponding mentality widely condemned.

While these processes were initially faster in Estonia, all three [Baltic] countries were broadly in the same place in terms of social development by the time they joined the EU in 2004.

One might ask why did Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, for example, not choose similar paths. This is where the second deciding factor enters play. The Baltic peoples felt their Western orientation start to pay off as early as the late 1990s. In other words, while economic hardship lasted for many more decades in other former Soviet socialist states, and some are still roughly where they were in 1991 in terms of standard of living, the Baltics experienced impressive economic growth after less than a decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Joining the EU brought even better access to Western benefits.

The Russian world seemed less and less compelling in comparison. And this welcome trend seems to now be reaching younger Russian-speaking people in Estonia and Latvia.

The Baltics experienced positive feedback from their West-oriented decisions. The people saw that Western economy and democracy were working. At the same time, other post-Soviet states experienced nothing of the sort, got stuck between the East and West, while some even found Russian orientation to be more beneficial.

The war in Ukraine has opened many Eastern European countries' eyes and sent them gazing westward. But it is not just a question of whether these countries' residents and ruling elites wish to integrate with the West, but also whether the West is prepared to help those states and peoples. Provided the West is not prepared to contribute to the creation of a positive feedback mechanism like the one that worked for the Baltics, we have missed another historic opportunity.

f the West wants to keep the "Russian world" from eventually prevailing in Ukraine and elsewhere, the struggle is not just on the battlefield, but also in the economy, diplomacy and politics, but above all in people's hearts in terms of where they want to belong at the end of the day.

The commentary is based on a longer piece in The Baltic Times.

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