More than 600 math teachers were trained in Estonia between 2005-2023, and 64 percent of them currently work primarily as teachers. However, this is not enough to replace the teachers reaching retirement age, Foresight Center expert Eneli Kindisko said according to a press release.

"The number of next generation math teachers is only about half of what is required for replacement, and unfortunately, we also have to consider the higher-than-average quitting rate of young math teachers, which is affected by alternative better paid job opportunities as well as teachers' heavy workloads," Kindisko said.

The think tank's latest short report, "The need for the next generation of mathematics teachers and their alternative job opportunities," reveals that as of the 2023-2024 school year, there were 3,289 math teachers in Estonia.

The most critical need for a new generation of teachers is in grades 7-12, where one in three teachers is over 60 years old. By county, facing the greatest need for replacement math teachers are Lääne and Rapla counties, where 46 and 42 percent of math teachers, respectively, are aged 60 or older.

The think tank's analysis reveals that another concern is young math teachers quitting teaching at schools. During the 2021-2022 school year, for example, 244 math teachers quit their job, 46 percent of whom were under 40 years old.

The best paid alternative job opportunities for math teachers can be found in Tartu and Tallinn. In Tartu County, for example, a professionally trained math teacher earns €419, or 16 percent, less per month than math alumni who do not work as teachers. In Harju County, the difference in income is €374, or 13 percent, per month, while in the rest of Estonia, math teachers earn €255, or 10 percent, less.

Nonetheless, Kindisko highlighted that a higher salary alone is not enough to alleviate the shortage of math teachers, as teachers' heavy workload is a major challenge. This is also a concern in other countries, where various programs have been tested to attract and retain teachers in schools.

"For example, in England and the U.S., higher salaries are paid to math and physics teachers at the beginning of their careers, as well as to those who teach in schools where children come from poor socioeconomic backgrounds and where a large number of children have special education needs (SENs)," she explained.

"Teaching math in smaller groups and sharing good, qualified teachers between schools are also methods that have proven beneficial," the Foresight Center continued. "However, the quickest solution for small schools could be providing further training to teachers of other subjects who have small workloads, including a microdegree option, where teachers of other subjects could acquire the additional competences of a math teacher."

The Foresight Center is a think tank at the Chancellery of the Riigikogu that analyzes socioeconomic trends and generates future scenarios. It conducts research on a range of topics in order to anticipate emerging trends as well as potential disruptions.

The short report "The need for the next generation of mathematics teachers and their alternative job opportunities" is part of the Foresight Center's research stream "The Future for the Next Generation of Teachers," which is aimed at developing scenarios for the need for and next generation of teachers through 2040, based on global and national trends.

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