In recent months, coffee prices have surged significantly. Sellers suggest that the era of cheap coffee may be over for good.

The price of coffee on the global market is determined by stock exchange trading, and recently the price curve has been steadily climbing.

"Three or four years ago, the price of robusta beans was around $1,300-1,500 per metric ton, but just a few weeks ago, it was $5,500. We don't see an end to the price increase at the moment; we hope it will stabilize at some point. However, I don't believe we'll ever return to the old prices. Production has been scaled back, and soon coffee will likely become a luxury item," said Andres Paal, sales manager of Lavazza Estonia.

The price increase has now made its way to store shelves.

"In the last six months, prices have risen by about 4 to 20 percent. If we consider the last two years, the total price increase has already exceeded 50 to 60 percent. Looking ahead to the end of the year, we are forecasting a price increase of 3 to 7 percent. Unfortunately, we do not expect any price drops in the near future on the coffee market," said Kaimo Niitaru, director of assortment and procurement at supermarket chain Prisma.

"Producers are raising prices at different rates. The first increases arrived in midsummer, in July, and some are still pending. But we can say that by the end of October or November, all the announced price hikes will be reflected in products," said Kristjan Anderson, head of business accounting at Selver.

The main coffee producers – Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam – have struggled with the effects of climate change, which has reduced yields.

"The last harvest was extremely small due to weather conditions, and the next harvest is not expected to be much better. This has directly affected the supply of coffee on the market, driving up prices," explained Niitaru.

But there are other factors at play as well.

"Consumption is also growing. There are European Union regulations to consider. Brazil produces a lot of robusta beans, which are the most popular there, but because they use certain pesticides that the EU does not accept, we simply can't import them," noted Paal.

This, in turn, has affected consumer habits. At Rimi, coffee sales volumes have dropped by 10 percent over the past year and by as much as 20 percent over the past two years.

"Coffee has always been a category that finds its way into customers' shopping carts through promotional offers. And what we are seeing is that the proportion of coffee bought on sale versus regular price has increased further, now nearing 80 percent. That's a significant shift, meaning consumers are feeling the price increases," said Rimi Purchasing Manager Marilin Jürisson.

"Retailers expect that volumes will drop slightly. A 10 percent price increase is already the threshold that leaves an impact on unit sales," said Anderson, noting that coffee sales have fallen by 5 percent in the first nine months of this year.

More price-sensitive consumers have started switching from bean coffee to the slightly cheaper ground coffee, which in turn has affected the sale of automatic coffee machines. Last year, coffee machine sales were growing, but this year, they have dropped by up to 20 percent.

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