Sitting in Russia's shadow, the Baltic states urgently need upgraded NATO protections. A recent Lithuanian investigative report revealed just how determinedly Russia is trying to sabotage the Baltic states from the Kaliningrad exclave. The report also revealed Russia's military presence in Kaliningrad could be replenished in mere weeks, while close cooperation with Belarus poses another geopolitical risk. The news comes weeks after the German Intelligence chief's warning that Russia could be ready to launch an attack on NATO before
the end of the decade.

The Baltic states, encompassing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, have long been viewed as vulnerable to Russian aggression due to their geography and history. Squeezed between Russia, Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, they are largely isolated from the rest of Europe. Besides, having been part of the Soviet Union, it is no secret the Kremlin would like to re-absorb them into its sphere of influence.

It is little surprise there is a relatively large NATO presence in each of the Baltic states. As of now, this presence is limited to various multinational NATO battalion-sized battlegroups. In Estonia, the total number of troops at any one time is about 1,200; in Latvia, around 1,500 and in Lithuania, approximately 4,000, all on a rotational deployment basis.

In July, however, NATO announced an upgrade of some of these battlegroups to full brigades with permanent bases. An upgrade in Estonia is not planned, but Canada has promised to step up its efforts in Latvia by 2026, bringing its troop count to a brigade-level 2,200. Meanwhile, Germany plans to raise the bar in Lithuania, upgrading to 5,000 troops, but not until 2027. Although these developments are somewhat promising, they highlight a recurring issue with NATO: a day late and a dollar short.

Russia is bombarding the Baltics with hybrid attacks from Kaliningrad, where it also has a large military infrastructure it could staff within weeks. Combined with the fact Russian armed forces are stationed at a military base in Belarus a mere 40 km from the Lithuanian border, NATO's planned upgrades in the Baltics in three years' time may not be enough to deter the escalating threat, let alone address the urgent needs of today. In the event of a substantial, well-prepared Russian military offensive, the resistance the Baltics' national armies and several thousand NATO troops can muster would likely serve as little more than a tripwire.

Then there's NATO's new force model, which supposedly swoops in like a superhero with 100,000 troops ready to reinforce within ten days. Although that sounds intimidating, NATO would be faced with a logistical nightmare to get the manpower and equipment to the epicenter of the assault, since Russia would likely have already captured the Suwalki gap, the narrow land corridor connecting the Baltics to the rest of Europe. That is, if the Baltics are not already wiped off the map while the NATO backup is still packing its bags.

These scenarios seem far-fetched today, but so was a full-scale invasion of Ukraine until quite recently. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail, so it is better to be prepared for the worst. Putin has shown an aggressive willingness to use force to reshape Europe's borders, so it is no longer implausible that NATO will face a direct military confrontation in the foreseeable future.

To prevent such a disaster, it is imperative NATO urgently accelerates and expands its presence in the Baltics. The current plan to scale up forces by 2026 and 2027 is simply too slow. Proposed upgrades are also inadequate to deter a serious Russian threat. More brigades are needed, with permanent bases and on shorter notice. NATO must also provide the Baltics with full air defense capabilities and ensure Russian sabotage and cyber-attacks are dealt with
more firmly.

Strength is the only language the Kremlin understands. NATO cannot afford to hesitate. The stakes are too high and the costs of inaction too severe. This is not just about protecting the Baltics. It is about safeguarding the credibility and unity of the entire alliance. At well over 3 percent of their GDP, all three Baltic states have already proven their commitment to NATO's defense expenditure guidelines. Now, it is time for NATO to prove its commitment to them.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!