Economists: High inflation to continue in coming years
Inflation will continue at the same rate in 2025 and possibly 2026, economists for Estonia's biggest banks said. In October, inflation was 4 percent.
The Bank of Estonia said price hikes in October were connected to plane tickets and the school holidays. But, this does not mean that inflation has receded. Tax changes and seasonal energy prices also play a role.
"A temporary acceleration in price increases due to the energy component can probably be expected at the end of this year. What is also starting to feed through more strongly into retail prices is the rise in food commodity prices on the world market," Bank of Estonia Economist Rasmus Kattai told Friday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".
"Food and energy are likely to continue to keep our price increases at a rapid pace towards the end of the year. In a year or two, Estonia's price growth is likely to be somewhere in the region of 4 percent, and tax rises will account for quite a large share of price increases in both 2025 and 2026."
Swedbank's Chief Economist Tõnu Mertsina said: "Next year, we expect price growth to accelerate. While this year prices are expected to rise by 3.7 percent, next year we forecast prices to increase by just over 4 percent, driven by tax increases."
At the start of November, for the first time since spring, the Euribor stopped falling. Analysts think this change is only temporary.
"It is thought that the European Central Bank may not cut interest rates as quickly as markets had previously expected. Our view is that the central bank will continue to cut rates. It will be cut in December, and again next year at each meeting by about 25 basis points," said Mertsina.
Peter Priisalm, head of Avaron investments said: "Interest rate cuts will continue to be assessed. At least five interest rate cuts are expected until next November, by which time the interest rate should be somewhere around 1.9 percent."
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Helen Wright