Martin Mölder: What might shape Estonian politics in 2025?

As elections approach, the creation of various semi-real or fabricated episodes, as well as arbitrary interpretations and amplifications aimed at smearing competitors, is increasing, Martin Mölder noted in his Vikerraadio daily commentary.
In the coming year, the current Riigikogu term will reach its halfway point. Local elections will take place in the fall. Everyone is eagerly waiting to see when the economy will finally start to grow. There's also hope that the next Russian or Chinese ship won't serve as a sharp reminder of Estonia's fragile energy security. This year will reveal whether the highly unusual political landscape in Estonia has become entrenched or remains in flux.
At the start of a new year, people love to make predictions — including about politics. However, politics is largely unpredictable. So, any forecasts made at the beginning of the year about what might happen should be taken with a grain of salt. That includes what follows here. This doesn't mean we shouldn't think about the future and keep in mind what could influence our country's political trajectory and overall well-being.
The actions of individual players are unpredictable and their impact is usually limited. It's often the structures and how those players fit into them that are decisive. Being in the right place at the right time — even by accident — can have a greater impact than any deliberate attempt to shape events. Recent significant shifts in party support in Estonia haven't occurred due to internal initiatives but rather as reactions to external factors.
At least two such external factors in the coming year could significantly alter the balance of power in Estonia's domestic politics. One is the Russia-Ukraine war. The war's outbreak dramatically reshaped Estonia's political landscape. Similarly, any freezing or resolution of the conflict could have a similar impact. There's a reasonable chance that we'll see developments on this front in the coming year. The second factor is Donald Trump's potential return as U.S. president.
Let's start with the war. Its outbreak three years ago shifted focus away from the domestic political issues that had been plaguing the Reform Party and allowed their support to rise significantly. The war also created a context in which Kaja Kallas' husband's business dealings in Russia and the prime minister's response to the controversy led to a steep decline in both her personal approval ratings and those of her party — a decline that continues to this day. What could the end of the war bring?
The end of the war would undoubtedly ease tensions, at least temporarily, not only in Estonia but across the entire region. If it also triggers a revival of the Estonian economy, that would be a major advantage for the government and the prime minister's party, regardless of whether their actions contributed to the recovery or not.
If there are no other major domestic political problems to tarnish the government's and the Reform Party's image at the same time, their support among voters is likely to grow. This would inevitably mean that Isamaa's current strong position with voters would weaken somewhat. Since domestic politics has been a weak spot for the Reform Party lately, the positive impact of such a scenario could be short-lived and limited.
What might Trump's presidency bring? Trump is unpredictable and deliberately provocative. His new term hasn't even begun, but we're already seeing some movement in the status quo. Who, for example, would have thought that Mark Zuckerberg, the owner of Facebook, would publicly state that it's time to return to respecting freedom of speech? That he would acknowledge Facebook's fact-checking policies have been too politically biased? And that he would wag a finger at the European Union for institutionalizing censorship at the same time? It's likely we'll see more surprises like this.
How would that affect us here on Europe's border?
Trump's presidency would reopen certain issues while shutting down others. It would force European countries to react and adapt, reshaping the ideological backdrop of the Western world. Topics that have been ideologically dismissed or spun out of existence would become harder to ignore. These include limiting immigration, addressing demographic crises, halting restrictions on freedom of speech, slowing down the green transition and curbing the growth of an overregulating state. Such topics would likely gain more prominence in Estonia's domestic political debate as well.
What impact would this have on our political parties? Right-leaning parties like Isamaa, EKRE and, to some extent, the Center Party could find themselves in a stronger position, depending on how well they play their cards. Even the Reform Party might benefit, provided it makes some policy adjustments. Otherwise, they'll find themselves swimming against the tide for at least the next four years — something that ultimately leads to exhaustion.
The war between Russia and Ukraine and the U.S. presidency — these are two factors far beyond our control. But we must not forget that party decisions and actions still shape their future. And often, it's easier to alienate others' supporters than it is to attract new ones through one's own efforts.
As the elections draw closer, there will be an increase in semi-real or entirely fabricated incidents — or the deliberate misinterpretation and amplification of events — aimed at discrediting political opponents. For instance, if you manage to pin a universally negative label like "Russia" or "extremist" on your opponent and convince voters of it, that ultimately works in your favor.
In short, we're waiting with curiosity to see how global politics will unfold in 2025. But let's not get political flies buzzing in our heads. The closer we get to elections, the more likely it is that political attacks on someone will be nothing more than cynical theatrics designed to manipulate public opinion.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski