Ratings: Coalition support at a six-year low

The combined rating of Estonia's three coalition parties, the Reform Party, the Social Democrats (SDE), and Eesti 200, has dropped to its lowest level since early 2019, according to a recent survey.
The poll, conducted by Norstat on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies, put the coalition's rating at 32.6 percent among eligible voters.
Opposition party Isamaa alone polled only a few percentage points behind this, at 28.3 percent of respondents.
A further 18 percent said they backed the Reform Party, with 16.2 percent pledging their support for the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).
While the rating for these three parties has been mostly stable in recent weeks, according to Norstat, Isamaa's support has slightly risen, widening its lead over Reform Party to 10.3 points, while EKRE remains 1.8 points behind Reform.
The third opposition party, the Center Party, polled at 15.1 percent in the latest Norstat survey, followed by SDE at 11.9 percent.
Support for the latter fell by one percentage point over the past week, Norstat reported.
Eesti 200 has by far the lowest rating among the six Riigikogu parties, at 2.7 percent, well below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in any electoral district at a general election, but above the 2 percent needed to qualify for state support.
As noted, the Norstat survey shows that coalition parties collectively have the backing of 32.6 percent of respondents, while opposition parties enjoy 59.6 percent support combined (unpledged respondents and those who picked a non-Riigikogu party make up the balance).
The coalition's cumulative support is now lower than its previous nadir, according to Norstat, which came in summer 2023 in the wake of what was euphemistically called in the media the "eastern transport scandal."
As to why this is the case, Eesti 200 is still likely reeling from a series of scandals which blighted the party last year, while it and Reform have a difference of opinion with SDE on how to proceed with Russian and Belarusian citizens ordinarily resident in Estonia, as well as "gray passport" holders, voting at this fall's local elections.
Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks.
The latest survey covers the period December 16 to January 19, during which time 4,001 Estonian citizens of voting age were quizzed.
Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to a party's size by support, so for instance, the margin for Isamaa as the most-supported party is +/-1.76 percent, compared with +/-0.63 percent for Eesti 200 as the least-supported party at the Riigikogu.
Norstat says it weights its samples following various socio-economic indicators and conducts its surveys both over the phone and online.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mirjam Mäekivi