Ratings: Both SDE and EKRE see slight rise in support

Opposition party Isamaa continues to top the ratings in Estonia at 26 percent support, according to a recent survey.
The research, conducted by pollsters Kantar Emor, found that the coalition Social Democrats (SDE) and the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) also saw a more modest rise in support, compared with the previous month.
Meanwhile, the Reform Party and Center Party have fallen slightly in the ratings.
SDE shares joint second/third place with its coalition partner, the Reform Party, at 16 percent support, according to Kantar Emor.
EKRE were just behind, polling at 14 percent, and the opposition Center Party next at 13 percent.
Compared to the end of last year, support for the Social Democrats and EKRE has slightly improved — SDE had a rating of 13 percent in December and EKRE 12 percent.
Whereas the rating of the sixth Riigikogu party, Eesti 200, remains below the 5-percent threshold (at 3 percent) needed to win seats at a Riigikogu election, the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed is above that level, for the eighth consecutive month and at 7 percent, Kantar Emor found.
This means that were an election to be held today and the ratings translated into electoral results, Parempoolsed, founded in 2022, would win seats whereas Eesti 200, with currently 13 Riigikogu seats, would not.
The breakaway Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives party (ERK) appears to be a lame duck now, polled at just 1 percent this month.
The party was formed last summer by disaffected ex-EKRE members, who clustered around former Riigikogu speaker Henn Põlluaas and other leading figures from that party.
However, Põlluaas and another EKRE defector Ants Frosch left ERK for Isamaa earlier this month.
Since then, EKRE has seen a resurgence in support.
The combined support for the three coalition parties stood at 35 percent in January, according to Kantar, compared with 53 percent for the three opposition parties combined; this gap has not significantly changed over the month.
Support levels including undecided respondents
The above results do not include unpledged respondents, who made up 28 percent of the total (down slightly from 29 percent last month).
If these respondents are taken into account, Isamaa's rating was 19 percent, Reform's stood at 12 percent, SDE's at 11 percent and EKRE's at 10 percent.
The Center Party (9 percent) and Parempoolsed (5 percent) were in the single figures by this methodology, but still above the electoral threshold.
Below the 5-percent threshold with undecided respondents included were: Eesti 200 (2 percent), the Estonian Greens (2 percent), the ERK (1 percent) and the pro-Kremlin Koos/Vmeste party (1 percent).
Support by demographic
Among respondents identifying as Estonian, Isamaa rated even higher than among the general populace, at 30 percent.
The Reform Party picked up 19 percent support, SDE, 16 percent, and EKRE had a 15 percent rating.
Parempoolsed's rating among Estonian respondents was higher than in general too, at 9 percent, while Center's was lower, at 5 percent.
Both Eesti 200 and the Greens polled at 3 percent in this demographic.
Among non-Estonian respondents, mostly meaning those whose first language is Russian, the Center Party garnered 51 percent support.
Center's traditional bedrock of support had been found in this demographic.
SDE polled quite strongly at 13 percent, while despite being nationalist parties to varying extents, Isamaa (10 percent) and EKRE (8 percent) both polled above the electoral threshold, likely due to this demographic often having socially conservative tendencies.
The Koos/Vmeste party polled at 10 percent with non-Estonian voters, while Reform and Eesti 200 were down to 3 percent, and Parempoolsed 1 percent.
By age group, Isamaa topped all categories save for the youngest one (18–24-year-olds), where SDE was the most backed party.
By income, the Reform Party had the highest support among the wealthiest voters, while Isamaa again led among all other income groups.
A similar picture was seen in groups by education level: Reform and Isamaa were neck-and-neck among respondents who had a higher education, while Isamaa alone led among those who had secondary education (up to high school level) and basic education (up to junior high, the mandatory education level in Estonia).
In Tallinn, the Center Party polled highest – significant given this fall's local elections.
Center rated at 26 percent in the capital according to Kantar Emor, while the Reform Party polled at 19 percent, Isamaa at 17 percent, and SDE at 15 percent.
All other parties rated in the single figures in Tallinn: EKRE's rating stood at 8 percent, Parempoolsed's at 6 percent, and Eesti 200's at 4 percent.
The Center Party had governed Tallinn, mostly alone, for nearly two decades until last spring, when it was ousted from office and the current Isamaa-SDE-Reform-Eesti 200 coalition entered office.
The Center Party also enjoyed the highest support rating in Ida-Viru County, another area where it has traditionally performed well, while Isamaa led in all other regions of Estonia.
Kantar Emor polled 1,537 Estonian citizens of voting-age across Estonia both online and over the phone, between January 13 and January 21.
Kantar Emor claims a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent with the above figures.
The next elections are to the 79 local municipalities, in October this year.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Andrew Whyte