Political analysts: Eesti 200's slump does not bode well for local elections

According to political analysts, Eesti 200's continuing slump the does not bode well for them in October's local elections. However, the party itself is optimistic, saying that preparations for the elections are already under way.
In the latest Kantar Emor ratings, Isamaa remains the most popular party in Estonia with 26 percent support among those surveyed. This is down by one percentage point from December, however. The second most popular party is still the Reform Party with 16 percent, though they also saw a slight fall in support.
The Social Democratic Party (SDE) and EKRE both managed to slightly increase their support over the past month, reaching 16 and 14 percent respectively. The fifth most popular party is the Center Party with 13 percent support, while Parempoolsed are also above the electoral threshold of 7 percent. Despite being in Estonia's governing coalition, Eesti 200 has only 3 percent support according to the January poll.
Support for the Eesti 200 p reached its peak in February 2022, when it hit 21 percent. A year later, after the March 2023 Riigikogu elections, that had already fallen to 16 percent, and has continued to drop since. That Eesti 200 are currently below the electoral threshold is something remarkable in the history of Estonian coalition politics.
"Perhaps the closest example of this is Isamaa, who under Helir-Valdor Seeder was also quite close to the electoral threshold for pretty a long time as part of the government coalition, but indeed they were not below the threshold," political scientist Tõnis Saarts said.
The party is not expected to perform well in October's local elections.
"The position of the Eesti 200 nationwide is weak and it is certainly difficult for them to hope for much success in the local elections. The competition is strong in any case. Their rivals are the Reform Party and, as a new party, Parempoolsed, who will take the votes of supporters who want to vote for a new political force," explained Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog.
Eesti 200, however say they will give it their all in the local elections this fall, irrespective of the ratings, and added that preparations are already under way.
"Foreign partners have been chosen to help us campaign. Now is the time to establish the messages, the slogans, and the frontrunners – we're gathering the information. This preparation is ongoing," said Eesti 200 board member Aleksei Jašin.
The party's fate in the next Riigikogu elections in two years' time will largely depend on the results of these local elections.
"The rule of the game in Estonian politics is that if you are defeated in the local elections, then you will not be elected in the next Riigikogu. So if Eesti 200 does very badly in the local elections, you can say that the electorate has abandoned them and I don't think they will be given a second chance," Saarts said.
According to Jašin, Eesti 200 has no plans to join up with Parempoolsed.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Michael Cole
Source: "Aktuaalne kaamera"