Tõnis Saarts: Isamaa's road to the government

The prospect of Isamaa being invited into government hinges on its performance in the local elections, economic forecasts and, paradoxically, the fate of Eesti 200, writes Tõnis Saarts in his commentary for Vikerraadio.
One of the most intriguing questions of the newly begun political year is whether the Isamaa party will find itself in the government by year's end or whether we will need to wait a bit longer.
The autumn local elections could serve as a catalyst for Isamaa's transition into government. The results of these elections will determine whether it is strategically the right moment for Isamaa to take the reins at the national level and whether the Reform Party has any willingness to invite them to the negotiating table at Stenbock House.
The prospect of Isamaa joining the government depends on three major factors: Isamaa's own performance in the local elections, economic forecasts and, paradoxically, the fate of Eesti 200.
If Isamaa performs well, or even unexpectedly well, in the local elections, it will demonstrate that their opposition strategy is working. However, taking on government responsibility at the national level would then be premature. Participating in government inevitably involves making unpopular decisions, which could alienate some of Isamaa's current diverse support base and push them toward other right-wing parties.
On the other hand, if the election results are unsatisfactory for the party, they might seriously consider whether greater visibility at the national level could be more beneficial in the long run. This would be especially true if the autumn economic forecast turns out to be optimistic about the coming years. Isamaa would not enter government to impose cuts or raise taxes but rather to "correct" the catastrophic mistakes of previous Reform Party-led governments.
The third critical variable is the fate of Eesti 200. A clear trend has held in Estonian politics so far: parties that fail in local elections typically do not make it into the next Riigikogu. This happened to the Green Party and the Free Party, and at present, there is little to suggest that Eesti 200 has the internal resources to defy or ignore this trend.
What does this mean for the current ruling coalition? If a clear electoral defeat looms for Eesti 200, their parliamentary group could start disintegrating even before the October elections. The shock of electoral failure would further increase the likelihood of the party's eventual collapse.
Prime Minister Kristen Michal could therefore find himself at some point leading a minority government or a coalition with a razor-thin majority. This would undoubtedly increase the Reform Party's readiness to replace the unstable Eesti 200 with a new and more reliable partner. Due to the weakened position of the Center Party, Isamaa has become the only viable option.
Thus, if all three of these conditions come to pass — Eesti 200 collapses, the economic forecast is positive, but Isamaa's local election results fall short of expectations — Isamaa's entry into the governing coalition by the end of the year becomes quite likely.
If only some of these conditions materialize, the outcome is more uncertain. For example, if Eesti 200 collapses, Isamaa achieves decent election results, but the economic outlook is bleak, it might be more prudent for them to let the Reform Party continue to stew in its own juice while leading a minority government.
If Isamaa's election results are worse than expected and the national economic prospects are also unpromising, the party will face a serious dilemma about when, or even whether, to turn its attention toward the doors of Stenbock House.
It is also not out of the question that Eesti 200 might find a lifeline by merging with [the non-parliamentary] Parempoolsed (the Right-wingers), enabling the current coalition to continue with a new coalition agreement that includes a few symbolic promises pushed through by the Parempoolsed.
In summary, this political year promises to be quite exciting, as the results of the local elections may not only bring power shifts at the municipal level but could also lead to much larger changes in Estonia's political landscape and governance.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski