The matter of whether Russian and Belarusian citizens and stateless persons should be allowed to vote at the upcoming local government council elections is still sparking social debate in Estonia.

While those seeking to restrict voting rights are giving national security as the reason, substantive security-related argumentation has been lacking.

How would Russian citizens keeping their elections rights – on the local government level no less – jeopardize Estonia's security in a situation where we have had no serious incidents due to expanded voting rights in the last 30 years? In other words, how would one imagine Putinist municipal policy with the potential to threaten Estonia?

The debate has so far followed three main veins of argumentation.

First, that all aggressor states' citizens should be cut off from the right to vote in whichever democratic elections.

In this case, Chinese citizens living in Estonia, however few they number, would also lose their right to vote should China attack Taiwan in the future. But this rather linear concept fails to answer the question of why are we also seeing attempts to strip stateless persons of their right to vote.

Secondly, it has been claimed that we are rectifying historical mistakes made when the 1992 Constitution was put together. That citizens of a country hostile toward Estonia should not have been given the right to vote in the first place. The only question is why are establishment parties, such as Isamaa and the Reform Party, taking note of this "oversight" only now, 30 years later. After all when, the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) raised the matter of limiting voting rights in 2017, both tried their best to sweep the debate under the rug.

This brings us to the argumentation of those who are lamenting a potential security concern, which has been emotional rather than highlighting potential threat scenarios until recently. What might these realistic threat scenarios be?

We could speculate that leaving aggressor states' citizens the right to vote could result in the local elections victory of coalitions advocating for a People's Republic of Narva or an Ida-Viru County autonomy referendum. But do we have any evidence whatsoever to suggest such an idea is popular among Ida-Viru voters or that there are local politicians who could go along with it? Not that I have heard...

But even if it were the case, it would pose a threat to the constitutional order, and I refuse to believe Estonia and its Internal Security Service (ISS) are incapable of nipping such movements in the bud, without the country having to restrict voting rights for this purpose.

Another scenario might see Russian citizens vote for politicians who actively oppose the Estonia state and start to obstruct reforms, especially in education.

This is where we need to keep in mind that Estonian citizens also get to vote in local elections. Therefore, it is difficult for me to see how restricting voting rights could meaningfully affect the gallery of local elections candidates and make it more pro-Estonian overnight. It pays to keep in mind that Aivo Peterson came close to being elected to the parliament with Estonian citizens' votes.

I also believe Estonia capable of putting its foot down; for example, as concerns the education reform, should it prove necessary. Recent practice from Narva supports this.

Thirdly, we might imagine local councils in Ida-Viru County that will start to demand the revocation of Russian sanctions, call for immediate peace in Ukraine etc. However, allow me to point out that foreign and security policy is not among local government tasks.

Fears that Russia could use its citizens to actively influence our local government results, like it does in Moldova and Georgia, also do not seem convincing. What for? What would be the Kremlin's motivation in meddling in a small country's local elections, which have no bearing on its national-level decisions? More so as our local elections, unlike in Moldova and Georgia, do not govern major decisions, such as East versus West, Russian versus Europe.

Therefore, I seriously struggle to imagine Putinist municipal policy that would pose an immediate security threat if we do not limit voting rights. Esteemed proponents of revoking voting rights, please help me out! Help the public understand the real and tangible security threats you're talking about. And do it in a way that avoids painting Estonia as hapless and incapable of enforcing its rules without stripping a tenth of the population of the right to vote.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!