For this reason, it might be better to let sleeping dogs lie, Arnold Sinisalu, who was director of the ISS – known in Estonian as Kapo – 2013-2023, told Delfi.

He said that there is no black-and-white answer on whether Russian and Belarusian citizens who currently have the right to vote in local elections pose a security threat to Estonia, and that much depends on the individual in question.

The situation in Estonia is different from Latvia and in some other countries where such voting rights have never existed in the first place, Sinisalu said, whereas in Estonia the right of third country nationals to vote in local elections has always been in place.

"I have major reservations and doubts on whether we would solve problems or create more," he said, adding that the move might be striking the wrong place.

"Statistics reveal that the number of Russian citizens and non-citizens voting in local elections is very low. Consequently, the influence stemming from that is relatively small," Sinisalu reasoned.

The former ISS chief added that under certain, adverse conditions, Russia could press the matter itself, and foment discord within Estonia's Russian-speaking populace if the right to vote were removed.

"Let's take a hypothetical scenario – you don't need much to incite some kind of violence. I don't want to give people ideas, but it's pretty simple, it's not complicated," he said.

Sinisalu added that when there are security problems, where possible the individual in question should have their residence permit revoked, and be deported, as has already happened in several instances since the start of the invasion in February 2022 – those who have been returned to Russia for that reason have not ended up being particularly happy to be back there, he added.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought scrutiny on Russian citizens residing in Estonia on permanent residents' permits, along with citizens of Russia's ally, Belarus. "Gray passport" holders are those who are citizens of no country and who are issued a travel document of that color; this demographic is overwhelmingly of Russian origin, and is also permitted to vote in local elections.

All other third country, roughly meaning no-EU/EEA, nationals who hold a permanent residency permit in Estonia may vote in local elections.

The next local elections in Estonia are in October 2025.

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