The webcast accompanied the publication of November's party ratings as compiled by pollsters Kantar Emor on behalf of the ERR newsroom, and Kantar expert Aivar Voog was joined by ERR's Anvar Samost and Urmet Kook for the broadcast.

Russian-speaking voters and party preferences

All three highlighted the fluid political preferences of those Russian-speaking voters with more liberal values, likely not a majority of that demographic.

Voog said: "These voters are highly fluid in their political preferences, which makes their impact on election outcomes particularly unpredictable," putting them at about a quarter to a third of the total.

Voog noted that the Social Democrats' (SDE) rating has nearly halved among Russian-speaking voters, dropping from 14 percent in the summer, to 9 as of the present.

Samost attributed this to the constitutional amendment debate, which would strip Russian citizens resident in Estonia of the right to vote in local elections, stating.

"The constitutional amendment debate has significantly affected the Social Democrats' ratings," Samost said, a point Voog agreed on.

Voog stressed that voting rights remain the most pressing issue for Russian-speaking voters in Tallinn, while Samost and Kook discussed the potential impact of controversial Narva politician Mihhail Stalnuhhin's alliance with the pro-Kremlin KOOS party.

Kook said: "If he aligns with KOOS, this could reshape the Russian-speaking electorate in the next elections," which take place in October next year, to the municipalities.

Voog concluded that Russian-speaking voters are generally more conservative, with some supporting EKRE and KOOS in consequence.

SDE and Russian-speaking districts

The coalition developments in Narva, including returning mayor Katri Raik's (SDE) controversial, and as it turned out short-lived, cooperation with Stalnuhhin, have not yet impacted the SDE's ratings, but are expected to shape future voter preferences.

Voog said: "Coalitions like these will play a significant role in shaping voter choices."

Samost highlighted a potential backlash among Estonian-speaking voters, and noted that Russian-speaking voters may also dislike the lack of consistency too, saying: "This kind of political inconsistency does not sit well with many voters."

EKRE's recovery and strategic adjustments

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) meanwhile is recovering from a drop in support seen in summer as a large number of dissident members left to form a new party, the similarly-named ERK.

EKRE's support has rebounded to 15 percent, primarily at ERK's expense.

At the same time EKRE rated at 21 percent a year ago.

Samost noted, "The downward trend for EKRE started well before their internal split became evident," ie. before early summer.

Samost attributed EKRE's subsequent recovery to a strategic shift away from "relentless and angry filibustering," stating, "I think they have now realized that this was not the wisest tactical approach."

EKRE conducted a long-running filibuster at the Riigikogu through much of late 2023 into the first half of 2024.

Center Party and strategic shifts there

The opposition Center Party, another to have seen some recovery at the polls lately, needs to diversify its base if it wishes to further improve, Kook found.

 He said: "If the percentage of Estonian-speaking voters increased from 5 percentage points to 10 percentage points, this would significantly impact support."

Voog dismissed the idea that figures like former EKRE member Jaak Madison, a sitting MEP who joined Center in late summer, could win back Russian-speaking voters in significant numbers.

Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed merger option

Another new tidbit which arose this week is a potential merger between Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed, floated by Foreign Minister and former Eesti 200 chair Margus Tsahkna this week.

Eesti 200's support has been in the doldrums for months, following a wave of corruption scandals, whereas Parempoolsed at present polls above the 5-percent threshold required to win Riigikogu seats.

On this Voog stated, "There is some overlap among their supporters, and the merger would not mathematically guarantee increased support," but cautioned that "Parempoolsed are not a top choice for Eesti 200 supporters."

Both have comparatively liberal social views but Parempoolsed is more attuned to cutting subsidies and pursuing a more laissez-faire approach to economics.

Reform Party Ratings and future challenges

Reform's rating remains stable, which Voog attributed to Prime Minister Kristen Michal's stabilizing influence amid unpopular tax hikes and economic woes more broadly.

"Perhaps Kristen Michal ensured a certain stability, so there was no decline," Voog said.

Michal became prime minister in July after Kaja Kallas stepped down ahead of becoming the EU's next high representative for foreign affairs.

Samost noted that the full impact of Reform's policies is still yet to be felt.

He added that media coverage from a Von Krahl Theatre's production actually about the Reform Party may serve to positively impact ratings, but, Kook argued, "perhaps only a few thousand people attend such performances," meaning its reach will not be to the masses nationwide.

Samost countered this by saying: "The media coverage brought by interviews with Reform Party members discussing this play has been having an impact. There is an effect," even in respect of the majority who do not get to see the play.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!