The research, conducted on a monthly basis by pollsters Kantar Emor on behalf of ERR, found the opposition Isamaa still in the lead with a 24-percent rating, coalition party Reform remaining in second place with 17 percent support and the opposition Center Party in third place at 15 percent.

This means Center have overtaken the coalition Social Democrats (SDE), amid declining support for the latter among non-native Estonian-speaking respondents to Kantar's surveys.

SDE polled at 14 percent, just one percentage point behind Center, and neck-and-neck with the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

While the party's rating among native Estonian-speaking and non-native Estonian-speaking respondents was practically on par in the summer, it has seen a significant decline in recent months. Support for SDE among non-Estonians has now dipped 10 percent, even as the party takes a softer line on the potential removal of Russian citizens' voting rights in Estonia, than does Reform or Isamaa.

The opposition EKRE also polled at 14 percent, maintaining a steady level of support.

Minor fluctuations aside, party support levels for the six Rigiikogu parties in November were similar to those in October.

Parempoolsed, not represented at the Riigikogu, polled at 6 percent, ahead of the 5-percent threshold required to win seats under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation and one percentage point up on its October rating.

Other parties remained below the threshold.

Eesti 200's rating, which was just 3 percent in the previous month, rose to 4 percent in November, albeit still below the electoral threshold and even as the party has 13 Riigikogu seats.

Former party chair and current Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has said Eesti 200 will likely have to merge with another party, he mentioned Parempoolsed, to ensure its electoral survival.

Two parties polled at 2 percent: The pro-Kremlin KOOS/Vmeste, and the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK), the latter formed in summer around a cluster of breakaway ex-EKRE members.

Two-percent or more of the vote at a Riigikogu election qualifies a party for state support.

The Estonian Greens (Rohelised) polled at 1 percent in November, according to Kantar Emor.

A total of 36 percent of voters supported the three coalition parties combined in November, compared with 53 percent for the three parliamentary opposition parties together.

These figures only changed a little in November compared with October, when the numbers were 35 and 52 percent, respectively.

A total of 31 percent of respondents to November's survey were unpledged and were unable to pick a party they would support.

Ratings with 'Can't Say' Respondents Included

Including the don't knows gives Isamaa 17 percent support, the Reform Party 12 percent, and the Center Party, Social Democrats, and EKRE 10 each.

Parempoolsed poll at 5 percent support using this methodology, Eesti 200 at 3 percent, Koos 2 percent, and ERK and the Greens at 1 percent each.

Party ratings by demographic

Among native Estonian voters, Isamaa were in the lead at 28 percent support, followed by Reform at 21 percent.

Despite being at opposite ends of the political spectrum, EKRE and SDE polled evenly in this demographic, at 15 percent each.

Parempoolsed polled at 7 percent with Estonian native speakers, ahead of both Eesti 200 and the Center Party (5 percent each).

Among non-native-speaking Estonian voters, the Center Party remained dominant at 58 percent support, followed by KOOS at 11 percent.

Center has traditionally been the go-to party in this section of society, though has seen its support wane in the past decade.

Again, SDE and EKRE were neck-and-neck with this demographic, rating at 9 percent each.

In Tallinn alone the Center Party remained the strongest at 28 percent, with Isamaa rising to second at 17 percent, overtaking the Reform Party, which fell to 15 percent of support.

The Next Elections in Estonia Are to the Local Municipalities, in October 2025.

Methodology

Kantar Emor said it quizzed 1,516 voting-age citizens across Estonia both via online and telephone interviews, November 14 to 21.

Voting age at Riigikogu elections is 18 and over, for local elections the minimum age is 16.

Kantar claims a maximum possible margin of error of +/-2.2 percent in a sample of this size.

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