Isamaa continues to be the most popular Estonian political party, with support rising to 27 percent according to the latest Kantar Emor poll commissioned by ERR. Isamaa has been the most popular party in Kantar Emor's polls since November 2023, with support for the party ranging from 22 to 28 percent during the entire period. Looking at the monthly figures, Isamaa's support rose from 24 percent in November to 27 percent in December, the biggest change in support for any party.

Huko Aaspõllu said Isamaa has managed to position itself as a leading opposition force, presenting itself as an alternative to the coalition. "Isamaa has taken the votes of the Reform Party and Eesti 200 after them, simple as that," Aaspõllu said.

According to Aaspõllu, Isamaa's support is also underpinned by a good dose of populism.

Speaking about Eesti 200's ratings, which are currently below the electoral threshold, Aaspõllu said Kristina Kallas has failed to increase the party's low level support around. "Both in terms of image and for ordinary people, everything is the same. It doesn't matter whether the leader is Kristina Kallas or Margus Tsahkna," Aaspõllu said.

According to Kook, however, there is a difference. "Kristina Kallas still represents a certain expertise in her field," Kook said. He added however that it is difficult for Eesti 200 to increase their ratings when it is part of a government alongside the Reform Party, who they share a lot of positions with.

"They are very close in terms of their outlook. They can't suddenly take a different position in government, a position on which, for example, the SDE have been able to ride. Since there is no possibility of differentiation, they are always option number two."

Voog added that Isamaa have, for example, taken support from Eesti 200. "If you want to rise, someone has to fall. For them to have grown, Isamaa's support would have to have fallen," Voog said.

Aaspõllu pointed out that with the right decisions, there could also be an upturn in support for Eesti 200.

According to Aaspõllu, Isamaa's rating has gone up because of leader Urmas Reinsalu's actions. Voog pointed out, however, that the prerequisite for this was that the party's main competitors are in a weak position.

Kook said that the Center Party, EKRE and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) are on fairly equal footing. He pointed out that support for the Center Party has been very stable throughout the year. Meanwhile, the SDE and EKRE have had similar ratings, but their fluctuations in support have been different. The biggest loser in terms of support, he said, has been EKRE, which for a long time was in either first or second place among Estonian political parties.

According to Kook, the decline in support for EKRE is mainly due to certain members leaving the party, but additionally because of the party's poor showing in the last Riigikogu elections and its position in the opposition.

Voog again highlighted the role of Isamaa. "After all, their closest competitor is Isamaa. They have a certain amount of overlap among the electorate. Isamaa are currently in a strong position, and this precludes the EKRE from returning close to 20 percent," he said.

"Isamaa has taken from both Reform and EKRE and that has guaranteed them this kind of support," Voog said.

Aaspõllu added that the ratings for the Center Party and EKRE can be considered relatively good, as there has been a fair amount of internal tension and upheaval in both parties.

Aivar Voog said there have been major changes to the type of voters who support the Center Party. "Support among ethnic Estonians has dropped, but among other ethnic groups the Center Party has become a more distinct party and support among that group has increased. Overall, this leaves them with more or less the same result, but there has been a clear shift in the structure of its supporters," Voog said.

At the same time, Aaspõllu believes Center Party leader Mihhail Kõlvart is deliberately trying to keep the party from becoming too "Russianized" by appointing Jaan Toots as Mayor of Narva and accepting former EKRE member Jaak Madison. "They are also trying to keep this Center Party brand alive for Estonians, and up to now, they have succeeded," Aaspõllu said.

Kook countered that they have not done so very successfully. "If your support is four percent among Estonian voters, it's still a relatively poor result," Kook said. According to Aaspõllu, much worse could have been expected.

As for the Social Democratic Party's (SDE) drop in support, Kook said they had not yet found their place in the new Kristen Michal-led government. He added that the Kaja Kallas government gave them more opportunities to oppose the Reform Party's line, while the Michal government's style has been more restrained, "That is why it has been more difficult for the SDE to act as this kind of opposition in government," Kook said.

Since the summer, Voog pointed out, the SDE have lost ground among voters of other nationalities, due in large part to the issue of voting rights for Russian citizens and the Russian Orthodox Church having been raised.

According to Voog, Parempoolsed's support comes from people who are not favorably inclined toward the coalition parties, but are also disappointed with Isamaa.

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