The latest monthly poll conducted by Kantar Emor on behalf of ERR reported that Isamaa's rating had risen to an all-time high of 27 percent for February, just as the Center Party's support level fell to a record low, of 12 percent.

Aivar Voog said Ratas joining Isamaa brought a few percentage points to the party's rating, but Voog did not draw the conclusion that Center Party voters have necessarily started to pick Isamaa instead.

Voog added that Isamaa's rating has risen in rural areas in particular, though the party's support is not as great as its precursor party had enjoyed in the 1990s, when Mart Laar formed up his first government

Also appearing on the ratings special was ERR head of portals Urmet Kook, who said that wheraes 10 years ago, most likely no one would have conceived of Ratas joining Isamaa, both the politician and the party have evolved since then.

ERR journalist Huko Aaspollu, also taking part, said Jüri Ratas' image is ome of a national conservative and of a religious believer, which is a good fit for Isamaa in any case.

According to Voog, the further ratings of the Center Party depend on Russian-speaking voters. "The departure of Jüri Ratas, once a great symbol, from the party caused confusion among Russian voters," said Voog.

Support for the Center Party fell to 43 percent in the Kantar survey among Russian-speaking voters, which is notably low considering previous levels.

According to Voog, Center voters have partly shifted to the Social Democrats (SDE), but also observed that this party does not speak for the more conservative spectrum of that party's supporters or former supporters.

Huko Aaspöllu argued that Center's chair, Mihhail Kõlvart, has conversely alienated the party's pro-Putin voters due to his messages in support of Ukraine.

This could work to the benefit of fringe parties and organizations such as KOOS.

Kõlvart, the mayor of Tallinn, who took the helm of Center last September, is also trying to speak to more Estonians, in which he may or may not prove successful, Aaspõllu added.
Urmet Kook noted that SDE are the only coalition party to have managed to increase its support after last year's Riigikogu elections.

Among young voters, in fact, the party has become the most supported.

However, a problem here for SDE is that young voters often do not mobilize so actively at election time, so these high figures in general support may not be fully translate on election day.

Voog added that the addition of young voters to SDE is related to the drop in support for Estonia 200, which was the first choice of young voters in recent years.

Kook pointed out that while SDE have become the most preferred choice among the younger age groups, the Reform Party has done so among the elderly – traditionally a Center Party stronghold.

Aaspõllu argues this change relates Reform's policy of providing additional income to pensioners with higher incomes.

Aaspõllu also explained the rise in the support for SDE by the fact that they constitute an internal "opposition" within the coalition, just as the image sof both SDE's partners, Reform and Eesti 200, have suffered, for various reasons, in the year after the elections. "Eesti 200 have been, in a certain sense, the Reform Party's 'poodle,'" he added, referring for example to the controversy over the prime minister's husband's business interests and their ties to Russia, a story which, when it broke in late summer last year, found current Eesti 200 leader Margus Tsahkna clearly backing Kallas.

Aaspõllu said the change of the party leader, i.e. replacing Hussar with Tsahkna, the foreign minister, late on last year, had not brought any gains to Eesti 200. Kristina Kallas, Eesti 200's original leader, would have been a better bet in terms of recouping lost popularity, rather than Tsahkna, Aaspõllu found.

Voog added that research conducted on the reliability of ministers also backs up the claim that Education Minister Kristina Kallas is seen as more trustworthy than Margus Tsahkna.

Voog also said Reform's support may fall further still from its current level of 17 percent. "This depends on whether the party can resolve its internal disputes and make internal changes," he said.

EKRE's 15 percent rating for February is their lowest figure since the last election. According to Kook, the party's listless state was reflected by the action that took place in the Riigikogu on Wednesday, where the work of the Riigikogu was interrupted by noise played over a loudspeaker.

Desperate actions like that will not increase EKRE's support, he added.

Voog said that Isamaa possesses an electorate which partly overlaps with EKRE's, but Isamaa has recently moved more to the center in its worldview, under former foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu. "For as long as Isamaa is strong, EKRE has no chance to grow further. The main argument in favor of Isamaa is that they are not particularly extreme."

Isamaa also addresses a wider variety of social groups, and have also steered clear of most of the major polarizing topics.

This means they have started to compete more with the Reform Party, rather than EKRE.

Finally, Voog said the results of June's European Parliament elections cannot be forecast solely based on the current rating results, since voter turnout is traditionally lower than that of Riigikogu elections, and also due to the fact that, with only seven seats up for grabs across Estonia, European elections are more personality-based than party-based.

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