Ratings: Isamaa's support reaches five-year high

Support for the opposition Isamaa party has risen to nearly 28 percent according to a recent survey, the highest in over five years.
A total of 56.5 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), said they support one of the three opposition parties, namely Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), or the Center Party.
This compares with 39.3 percent of respondents, who pledge their support for a coalition party, namely the Reform Party, the Social Democrats (SDE) or Eesti 200.
By party, 27.5 percent of respondents to the Norstat poll picked Isamaa, while 18.6 percent pledged for EKRE.
The Reform Party polled at 17.3 percent, only a cat's whisker ahead of its governmental partner SDE, at 17 percent. The latter's support remains at its highest level since Norstat started conducting its surveys in their current format, over five years ago.
The party's rating has now risen by 6.1 percentage points over the past five weeks.
Both the Center Party and Eesti 200 have been in the doldrums of late, the former (current Norstat support: 10.4 percent) after a mass defection of MPs to other parties, primarily SDE.
Eesti 200's rating of 5 percent is highly significant given there is an election – to the European Parliament – coming up in June. Five percent is the minimum threshold required to win a seat in a given electoral district in any of Estonia's direct elections; with the European elections, Estonia is treated as one single electoral district (with seven MEP seats up for grabs).
Isamaa was late last month the beneficiary of the highest-profile Center Party defector, namely former Center leader and former prime minister Jüri Ratas. This development will have been reflected in Isamaa's rating, though Isamaa's net gains in terms of MP numbers remained unchanged at the start of the year, following Tõnis Mölder last week quitting the party, which he joined from Center last September, over corruption allegations. This incident was too recent to yet have made its effects known on Isamaa's rating one way or another.
The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).
The tables following that that show the four-week aggregate figures Erakondade toetusprotsent (4 Nädala koondtulemused ) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused) for each party (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Muu = Other parties).
Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis and aggregates them over the preceding four weeks (these are the figures reflected above).
The latest survey covers the period January 15 to February 9 inclusive, and around 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were quizzed.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Valner Väino