A several week-long rally in support for the coalition Social Democrats (SDE) also seems to have come to an end, according to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

A total of 58.4 percent of respondents to the survey pledged their support for one of the opposition parties, Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) or the Center Party, while 37.5 percent picked one of the three coalition partners instead: The Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats (SDE).

By party, 28.6 percent of respondents said they support Isamaa, EKRE's rating stood at18.7 percent and Reform's at 16.7 percent.

SDE lay just behind Reform, according to Norstat, with bang on 16 percent of respondents picking them, while the Center Party polled at 11.1 percent.

Eesti 200 had fallen below the 5-percent threshold needed to win seats under Estonia's proportional representation electoral system; in other words, if these results translated into election day results in any given voting district, Eesti 200 would not have won a seat. This was the first time Eesti 200, founded in 2018, fell below the election threshold since December 2019. The party currently has 14 Riigikogu seats following the general election nearly a year ago.

Isamaa's support continues to rise, by 1.1 percentage points over the week and nearly 3 percentage points in as many weeks, and the party is now at its most popular point for the past five years.

EKRE and Reform's ratings have not changed significantly in recent weeks, on the other hand.

Another party which has been riding high recently is SDE, though their support fell by 1 percentage point over the past week, according to Norstat, ending a six-week long rally helped along by the defection of five prominent Center Party members to its ranks last month.

The Parempoolsed, Estonian Greens and EÜVP parties are not represented at the Riiigkogu at present.

The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

The tables following that that show the four-week aggregate figures Erakondade toetusprotsent (4 Nädala koondtulemused ) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused) for each party (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Muu = Other parties).

Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis and aggregates those results over the preceding four weeks. The latest survey covers the period January 22 to February 19, and just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (18 and over) were polled, both online and over the phone, with the sample weighted to various socio-economic indicators.

Unpledged voters are removed in the above results.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of the party by support, so for instance with Isamaa, the most-supported party at present, the claimed error margin is +/- 1.64 percent, compared with +/- 0.77 percent for Eesti 200, at present the least-supported of the six Riigikogu parties according to Norstat.

The next direct election in Estonia takes place Sunday, June 6, to the European Parliament.

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