Support for the Center Party, once the largest opposition party and now the smallest by number of MPs, meanwhile fell to a record low of 12 percent in February, Kantar Emor says.

While Isamaa has remained the most-supported political party according to the Kantar Emor polls since last November, February's support of 27 percent marks a new record high and a vast increase on the year – by comparison, at the last Riigikogu elections nearly a year ago, Isamaa polled at 8 percent.

Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog has said that Isamaa's rise has been helped along by its acquisition of former Center Party chair and former prime minister Jüri Ratas late last month.

This has permitted Isamaa, already most-supported, to get an even higher profile in the media than before, he said, also noting Isamaa had come to occupy the political center more.

Voog said: "Isamaa has drawn support from the political party scene's polarizing forces, with the coalition Reform Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) [at the poles] and which expresses the positioning of Isamaa more towards the center, than the more conservative positioning it had in previous years."

The Social Democratic Party (SD) and Reform lay in joint second place by support, at 17 percent each when rounded up or down.

However, deconstructing that a little reveals SDE slightly has the edge at 17.2 percent versus Reform's 16.7 percent.

A month ago, Reform was ahead on 19 percent of support to SDE's 17 percent.

Thus SDE, second in this only to Isamaa, has managed to increase significantly its support with its performance at the March 2023 Riigikogu election, when the party polled at 9 percent.

SDE and the Reform Party are closely followed by EKRE, which polled at 15 percent support in February. A month earlier, the part's support had been 17 percent according to Kantar, while this month's figure represents EKRE's lowest ratings since the election.

Support for the Center Party as noted has plummeted further still, to a record low of 12 percent in February. In January, Center polled at 14 percent according to Kantar Emor.

Aivar Voog called it noteworthy that the Center Party's support has fallen below the 50-percent mark among voters of other ethnicities, referring overwhelmingly to Russian-speaking voters in Estonia.

While this has traditionally been a bedrock area of support for Center and particularly in Tallinn and northeastern Estonia, now, the party polls at 43 percent among this demographic, according to Kantar.

Among respondents whose first language is Estonian, Center polled at a mere 4 percent this month.

In February, the support of Eesti 200 was five percent, which represents the election threshold. Since August of last year, the support of Estonia 200 has not been higher than seven percent.

From the non-parliamentary parties, the Right and the Greens both gathered three percent support. One percent supported the left party.

In February, the total support of the coalition parties was 39 percent and the opposition was 54 percent. This balance did not change compared to the month before.

According to Aivar Voog, the political landscape of political parties is still turbulent, which predicts possible big changes in the near future.

Results with 'can't say' respondents factored in

The proportion of respondents who were unable to pick any party stood at 24 percent this month, down from 27 percent in January.

If the "can't say" respondents are also taken into account, Isamaa's rating stood at 21 percent (up from 16 percent in January, or 19 percent in December).

Reform's support stood at 13 percent, largely unchanged from its figure in December and January, while SDE's grew slightly to 13 percent (from 11 percent in December and 12 percent last month).

EKRE support conversely fell with the "don't knows" included – from 14 percent in December to 13 percent last month and 12 percent in the latest survey.

Center polled at 8 percent, compared with 9 percent in January. In December, the party had also polled at 8 percent with the "can't say" respondents included.

Eesti 200 rated at 4 percent this month (the same as in December and one percentage point higher than last month).

Finally, non-parliamentary parties Parempoolsed and the Estonian Greens picked up 2 percent of support each, which is the figure required at a Riigikogu election to qualify for state support (which Parempoolsed does receive) but below the 5 percent threshold required to win seats.

Support by demographic

By demographic, among Estonian-speaking respondents, Isamaa again polled highest at 32 percent. The Reform Party followed on 20 percent and EKRE and SDE were next, at 17 percent apiece.

Support for Eesti 200 among Estonian respondents was 6 percent, Center 4 percent, Parempoolsed 3 percent and the Greens 2 percent, according to Kantar Emor.

While Center remains the most supported party among respondents of "other ethnicities," its rating of 43 percent as noted is lower than it had been, and four percentage points below the figure for January.

SDE polled at 19 percent among voters of other ethnicities, EKRE 9 percent, Isamaa 8 percent (double January's figure), Eesti 200 has 7 percent and Reform polled at 3 percent with this population group.

SDE and Eesti 200 also perform better with the "other ethnicities" demographic than they do with native Estonian-speaking respondents.

Isamaa's support with this latter demographic has also risen to nearly a third (32 percent from 27 percent on month).

Isamaa most-supported party in Tallinn for first time ever

Isamaa also became the party most chosen in the Kantar survey for February in the capital alone, for the first time ever.

In Tallinn, Isamaa polled at 23.4 percent, though less than a percentage point ahead of the Center Party at 22.6 percent.

Tallinn has long been a Center stronghold. The party continues to be in office at city government level and its leader, Mihhail Kõlvart (pictured), is Tallinn's mayor – though following the 2021 local elections it had to enter into a coalition, with SDE in this case, whereas it had previously ruled alone.

Speaking of SDE, the party lay in third place in the capital on 19 percent, and its coalition partner at the national level, Reform, was next, on 13 percent.

EKRE's support in Tallinn stood at 9 percent, Eesti 200 at 6 percent, and the as-yet unrepresented Parempoolsed party, formed in 2022, polled at 4 percent.

Kantar Emor conducted its survey, which was ordered by the ERR newsroom, covering the period February 7-14, when it polled 1,579 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (18+ with no upper age ceiling).

A third of respondents were polled over the phone, two-thirds online.

Kantar Emor claims a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent.

Aivar Voog is due to appear in an ERR ratings special webcast at 11 a.m. Estonian time Friday, where he will be joined by ERR's Huko Aaspõllu and Urmet Kook, to comment further on the implications of the latest survey results.

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