Norstat: Urmas Reinsalu continues as most-supported potential prime minister candidate
A total of 24 percent of respondents to a recent survey said they would prefer to see ex-foreign minister and Isamaa chair Urmas Reinsalu installed as prime minister of Estonia, making him the most-supported politician in relation to this job, and up one percentage point from the proportion who felt the same, last November.
By comparison, 19 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Social Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), picked current incumbent Kaja Kallas as their choice for prime minister (nov 20); 13 percent chose Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) leader Martin Helme (nov 16)
Respondents were presented with the question: "Who would you prefer to see in the office of prime minister?" with the options being the chairs of all parties represented at the Riigikogu.
Behind Reinsalu, Kallas and Helme, Center leader and Tallinn Mayor Mihhail Kõlvart was next at 8 percent, followed by Social Democrats (SDE) chair and Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets at 6 percent, and Margus Tsahkna, leader of Eesti 200 and current foreign minister, who polled at 3 percent.
A further 27 percent of those polled were undecided.
Two-thirds of respondents support Kallas resignation
The survey also posed a question which has been asked many times already, namely if the respondent thuoght that Kaja Kallas should step down as prime minister.
A total of 66 percent answered in the affirmative (the options being "Yes" or "Preferably yes," while 26 percent responded either "No" or "Preferably not," with the 8 percent who answered "Can't say" making up the balance.
The Institute of Social Studies has been asking this question since late August 2023 in the aftermath of controversy relating to Kallas' husband's business interests, and the percentage those in favor of the premier's resignation has stayed in the 65 percent to 71 percent range, during that time.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the proportion varies between voter groups; among those respondents who said they are EKRE voters, 99 percent were in favor of Kallas resigning, though the percentages among stated voters of Center and Isamaa were not far behind, at 91 percent and 88 percent respectively. Supporters of coalition partners Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats (SDE) were split rouhgly 50:50 on the matter, with a larger proportion (over 10 percent) undecided, than was the case with the other party. Reform Paryt voters remained mostly loyal to their leader; 84 percent said that she should stay on as prime minister.
Going back to the question of who should be prime minister come what may, Isamaa voters, again as might be expefted, mostly preferred their own leader, though not wholly, at 74 percent of the total. The figures were similar to voters of EKRE (73 percent of whom would like to see Martin Helme as prime minister) and, again, Reform (79 percent said their preferred choice of head of government was the current one, ie. Kallas,)
Läänemets on the other hand was barely any more popular as a potential prime minsiter (picked by 26 percent of SDE voters) than was Kallas (25 percent of SDE voters).
The picture was even less rosy for Margus Tsahkna from among the grass root support of his party, Eesti 200. He in fact lay in third place among respondents who back that party, 27 percent of whom would prefer Kallas as prime minister, and 17 percent, Läänemets. Only 9 percent of stated Eesti 200 supporters would prefer to see their own party's leader as prime minister.
Respondents were also asked to choose between the two most-supported figures, ie. Reinsalu and Kallas, and to give their evaluation of which of the two would be the most suitable prime minister for Estonia.
On this, 55 percent of respondents picked Urmas Reinsalu (up from the 53 percent who did so last November), and 25 percent of respondents said they would prefer Kallas (down from 29 percent in November). A further 21 percent were unable to answer.
Norstat conducted its poll online, on March 5, and quizzed just over a thousand Estonian citizens of voting age.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mirjam Mäekivi