The prime minister and Reform Party chair will have to make her decision in March, Postimees reports, and is in with a chance of becoming ALDE's lead candidate, or Spitzenkandidat.

"Spitzenkandidat" means "lead candidate," in German, and in an EU context refers to a European political party's lead candidate for the European Commission president – currently Ursula von der Leyen.

"I have weighed the pros and cons," Kallas told the daily, and hinted at what would most likely happen on the domestic front were she to take the ALDE lead candidate position at the group's congress March 20-21, by saying: "If I were to announce that I was going to help these liberals, the Estonian media would immediately push me up against a wall, chorusing 'Bye, bye, see you soon."

Since taking the post would interfere with her work as prime minister it can be assumed, Postimees reports, that they would in effect be mutually exclusive – so in short if she were to take the ALDE/Renew Europe role, she would step down as Estonia's prime minister.

Kallas stressed that being the lead candidate for ALDE/Renew Europe would mean coming to their aid in, for instance, four pre-election debates due to take place, but would not bind her into actually running at this year's European Parliament elections.

The original Postimees piece (in Estonian) is here.

Kaja Kallas has also been linked in the media to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy post, effectively the EU's foreign minister, currently held by Josep Borrell and which becomes vacant after the election, while Jüri Ratas (Isamaa) several weeks ago tipped her as Estonia's next European Commissioner, once Kadri Simson's (Center) term ends.

While facing strong criticism at home, Kallas has long proven much more popular internationally, thanks to a steady stream of approving articles and interviews appearing on various media outlets.

She sat as an MEP from 2014-2019 and returned to take the helm at Reform, becoming prime minister in January 2021. She has warm relations with the current EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Reform's MEPs sit with the ALDE group, now known as Renew Europe, at the European Parliament – as does Center's MEP Yana, now Jana, Toom.

The European Parliament elections take place June 6-9 (the last of these days is polling day in Estonia itself).

Once these elections have been held, that European party that can command a majority governing coalition would likely see its Spitzenkandidat become commission president.

Another body, the European Council, proposes a candidate for the presidency, "taking into account the elections to the European Parliament" and under the expectation that the candidate put forward by the party which wins the most seats will be "first to be considered".

The European Parliament then votes on that candidate, requiring a majority for them to be confirmed as commission president – if this majority is not met, the council proposes a new candidate within one month.

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