There are still several turning points on Kallas' road to Brussels

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) may leave for an EU leadership role, but a few hurdles remain. Most analysts who spoke to ERR said Kallas should run for the European Parliament to boost her ALDE nomination. However, this may not improve her chances of achieving a prominent position in the EU.
Kallas has the opportunity to become the Spitzenakandidat (leading candidate) of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in the European Parliament elections, but she must make up her mind prior to the ALDE congress on March 20-21, according to a Friday article in the daily Postimees.
This could pose a dilemma for the Reform Party leader, as it would not be appropriate for her to continue as prime minister if she runs in the June 9 European elections. However, Kallas does not have to run for the European Parliament, but only take part in the four pan-European top candidate debates as an ALDE representative, Postimees notes.
ALDE Secretary-General Didrik De Schaetzen repeated this sentiment on Monday when he told news portal Delfi that Kallas boasts tremendous backing within the Liberal party, including among prime ministerial leaders. Delfi said that while De Schaetzen was unable to affirm explicitly whether an offer had been extended to Kallas, his implication was that the party had communicated its interest in the matter and that a response was anticipated. At the same time, he clarified that it was not about standing as a candidate in the European Parliament elections, but about activities that would be compatible with Kallas' current position as Estonian prime minister.
Meanwhile, Kallas is also seen as one of the possible candidates for the four main EU leadership positions – European Commission, European Council, European Parliament and EU High Representative – and a very strong contender for the latter position in particular. Only one of these positions requires a politician to be a member of the European Parliament.
Experts: Kallas should still stand as a candidate for the European Parliament
"It is possible that ALDE really wants her, but in that case - as the name Spitzenkandidat itself implies - the candidate should also stand for the European Parliament," a person in the corridors of power in Brussels told ERR.
Another said the same thing: "I find it extraordinarily strange if she would not run for the European Parliament in this case. The idea behind the Spitzenkandidat was to create a stronger link with the parliamentary group. As a rule, the Spitzenkandidat has stood for election anyway, although this is not an absolute requirement.
MEP Jana Toom, a politician from the ALDE-affiliated Center Party, also pointed out: "It would be incomprehensible if Kallas were to be a Spitzenkandidat and at the same time not stand in the European elections, because such a position was created precisely to bring the European elections closer to the citizens and to motivate them to vote."

"So, of course, Kallas should run in the European elections, but I don't know if she dares, as she could be defeated," Toom continued, referring to the ongoing tensions within the Reform Party between Kallas and the party's former leader, former prime minister and current MEP Andrus Ansip, who is planning to run for the European Parliament again.
"However, her position within the European Union leadership does not depend on whether she is a frontrunner," Toom said. "She is already internationally known and recognized – after all, she won several international awards last year," she added.
Another Brussels official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Kallas would not necessarily have to run in the European elections even if she were to become ALDE's top candidate.
At the same time, they pointed out that although ALDE is an older political formation, it is currently part of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, which has a total of just over 100 MEPs, of which around 70 are ALDE members. Renew was created after the 2019 European elections at the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party, which wanted more influence among European liberals. "So it would be good if Renew and ALDE had a single candidate instead of each having their own," they said.
Ursula von der Leyen aspect
Kallas' future is likely to be influenced by the current European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, who is believed to be interested in a second term. Von der Leyen is expected to announce her decision on a second term on Monday, February 19, when the leadership of her home party, the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is meeting.
At the same time, however, a competent person who spoke to ERR emphasized that if von der Leyen announces her candidacy for Commission presidency, this should mean that she probably has an agreement with President Macron.
While Macron is the most influential politician among Europe's liberals, von der Leyen is a member of the EU's largest political family, the European People's Party (EPP), through the CDU, meaning that a deal is taking shape among Europe's big four to share leadership. The third largest political family involved in the EU leadership is the Party of European Socialists (PES).

The current EU foreign policy chief, the Spaniard Josep Borrell, is a Social Democrat, and the current permanent Council president is the Belgian liberal Charles Michel, but neither is considered likely to remain in office – unlike the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola (EPP).
As Kallas is known to have a very good relationship with von der Leyen, it is possible that this will also play a role in the nomination of the new High Representative, a member of the Commission.
Kallas would be of great value to the Liberals
One of the Estonians in Brussels who spoke to ERR also pointed out that the position of the Liberals in Europe is relatively weak and might become even weaker after the European elections, which is why Kallas, who is relatively well known and visible in Europe and has a strong position in her home country, would be very useful for the Liberals.
There are currently only six liberals among the heads of state and government in the European Union's most influential decision-making body, the Council of the European Union, but all of them are less qualified than Kallas to be the liberal frontrunner. Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, is likely to leave soon for the NATO secretary-general post, Alexander De Croo, the Belgian prime minister, is preparing for re-elections, the French liberals would probably not be able to put forward a French for the European leadership, and Slovenia and Bulgaria do not have a candidate as strong as Kallas.
"She is one of the few who would be such a good and suitable frontrunner for the Liberals," said the source, who added that Kallas' arrival in Brussels is considered very likely.
Difficult to predict the relationship between Kallas and Macron
While one might think that Kallas would have the support of the French president – she has visited Paris twice and speaks French – an expert who spoke to ERR said that, as far as they know, Kallas does not have Macron's firm support, and this might be one of the reasons why Kallas has so far given rather vague answers about her possible European future.
"Kallas' nomination only makes sense if she has Emmanuel Macron's firm promise that one of the four leading positions in the European Union that goes to the Liberals, probably the post of high representative for foreign affairs, would go to Kallas. At the same time, the view that the Liberals will get the post of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, currently held by Social Democrat Borrell, is quite firmly entrenched in Brussels," they said.

"But as far as I know there is no such agreement. They (Macron and Kallas) have had some strange clashes, Macron has taken some of Kallas' statements very much to heart," they added.
Kallas also needs agreements at home
Several people who spoke to ERR emphasized that Kallas needs to get guarantees from within the Reform Party for her moves and reach agreements within the coalition.
Assuming that Kallas does not run for the European Parliament – which should be clear as early as March – the next decisions come in the summer.
Once the European Parliament is elected, national leaders will meet informally on June 17 to discuss the results of the elections, and the formal European Council will take place on June 27-28. The presidents of the European Commission and the European Parliament, the permanent president of the Council and the high representative of the Union for foreign affairs and security policy, who will also be vice-president of the Commission, could be then agreed. The presidents of the Parliament and the Commission will also have to be approved by the plenary of the European Parliament.
This is the point at which it will be decided whether Kallas is given one of these seats. However, the national government must nominate a commissioner, which means that Kallas, as prime minister, cannot nominate herself as a commissioner and must first retire as head of government in order to do so. Of course, before she resigns, she must have confirmation from the coalition's leading party, her own Reform Party, as well as the Social Democrats and the Eesti 200, that they propose her as the new president of the Commission.
Since the formation of the new Commission will not begin until the fall, a possible resignation of the prime minister would also have to wait until the second half of the summer.
Estonia should in any case take advantage of the situation
One of the people who spoke to ERR said that Estonia should take full advantage of the current situation where our politician is in such a strong position in Europe and so support Kallas' possible rise to a leading position in the European Union.
"We have a once-in-a-decade opportunity for our person to become a leader of the European Union, and right now this opportunity seems quite real," they said.
They also refuted the argument that Kallas could be handicapped by the fact that she leads a small country that does not have embassies in most of the world and therefore lacks a broader understanding of world politics. "You could make an issue of the fact that she (Kallas - ed.) has never had to think about what to do about Venezuela, for example, but that is still a minor issue. I wouldn't worry about it," they said, adding that such details are unlikely to be weighed by leaders when allocating seats.
--
Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!
Editor: Kristina Kersa