The survey, conducted by Norstat on behalf of NGO the Institute for Societal Studies, found that more broadly, party support levels have remained largely stable in recent weeks.

A total of 27.1 percent of respondents to the latest Norstat poll backed opposition party Isamaa, followed by the largest coalition party, the Reform Party, which polled at 18.4 percent.

In third place was the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) at 15.8 percent.

Isamaa has maintained stable support over the past month and has topped the rankings for many months now.

Reform's rating has gone down by 2.1 percentage points over the last month, according to Norstat, while EKRE has seen a rise of 3.1 percentage points over the same period.

These three are followed by the Center Party at 14.6 percent support and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with a 12.7 percent rating.

Center is in opposition, SDE is in coalition with Reform and Eesti 200.

As noted, Eesti 200 has the lowest support among the six Riigikogu parties and despite having over a dozen seats, with a rating of just 2.9 percent. This is above the 2 percent of the vote at a Riigikogu election to qualify for state support, but below the 5 percent threshold required to win seats.

The reasons for Eesti 200's continued low support include a series of scandals which rocked the party last year, most prominently involving an MP who headed up an NGO dedicated to aiding Ukraine but whose funds ended up going elsewhere.

In terms of broader trends, the three coalition parties collectively hold 34 percent support according to the latest Norstat poll, while the three opposition parties garnered 57.5 percent support.

Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over a four-week period. The latest survey covers the Christmas and New Year break and ran from December 2, 2024, to January 5, 2025, with just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age being quizzed.

Norstat uses a combined method of online and over-the-phone questionnaires, and claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of a party by support. So for instance, the margin of error for Isamaa, as the most supported party, is +/- 1.75 percent, compared with +/- 0.66 percent for Eesti 200 as the least supported.

The next elections in Estonia are for local government, in October this year.

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