Voog made his remarks the same day the latest monthly party ratings were published, during an appearance on ERR's ratings special webcast, where he was joined by ERR's Anvar Samost and Urmet Kook.

The survey, commissioned by ERR, found the recent move of MEP Jaak Madison, formerly of the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), to the Center Party, has not percolated through to the ratings as yet.

Madison, returned as an MEP in June, only made the move to Center in late August, though he left EKRE during its "night of the long knives" just after the European elections.

Since he is such a big political hitter the move has been assumed to represent a rightwards shift on the part of Center, which itself saw a mass exodus of MPs and other politicians and members earlier in the year.

While in any case both parties have been in office together nationally in the past (in 2019-2021 to be precise) and could be fairly said to be populist in their orientation, one key difference is that Center has traditionally drawn much of its support from the Russian-speaking population of Estonia.

While its native Estonian-speaking support was thus small in any case, the arrival of Mihhail Kõlvart as party leader a year ago led to the figures shrinking further still.

The hope therefore might have been that Madison joining would have halted and even reversed that trend, but this does not seem to have been the case yet, based on Kantar's latest poll.

The lag does not only affect Center and EKRE; Kristina Kallas, education minister, was also recently elected Eesti 200 chair – she was the party's original leader when it was founded in 2018 – and this too has not carried over into improved or otherwise changed ratings for that party.

Voog, Samost and Kook all noted that party rating changes over the past month have all fallen within Kantar's stated margin of error, though compared with the start of summer, EKRE has seen the most notable shift.

Voog pointed out that EKRE's previous stable 20 percent support rating has halved in that time.

This is the result of the large numbers of members leaving, many of whom joined a new party, the similarly named ERK, which would be detracting from EKRE in support terms. Isamaa's rise and rise in support in recent months are likely also to have negatively impacted on EKRE's.

Samost asked Voog whether ERK's initial polling figures could be considered as expected.

According to Voog, if anything it has proven somewhat higher than is usual for a new party. "It's rather a strong result," he said, recalling that when parties like Res Publica (a forerunner to Isamaa), the Free Party (Vabaerakond, which had half-a-dozen seats in the XIII Riigikogu) or Eesti 200 (now 14 seats) started life, their initial rating hovered around the 1-2 percent-, mark, whereas ERK's stands at 4 percent.

At the same time, Voog also noted that Isamaa's strong polling figures have held ERK back from realizing its full potential. "I would also compare it to Parempoolsed. When they broke away from Isamaa, their start was very slow," Voog added.

All three panelists concurred that with Isamaa, EKRE, Parempoolsed and ERK, Estonia currently has three of four conservative or national-conservative parties, albeit with some caveats.

Kook pointed out that the Center Party, which is now also moving toward the conservative niche in some ways, is doing so in an attempt to gain support in rural areas, at EKRE's expense, and helped along by Madison's membership.

In fact, this demographic often backed Center in the past, particularly when its co-founder Edgar Savisaar was at the helm, but the advent of EKRE over a decade ago drew voters away from that.

Vice-versa, many Russian voters hold socially conservative views, which meant that Center always had this strand within it in any case, making it a two-way street.

Voog said he sees this goal but noted it has yet to be realized. "They have retained their Russian-speaking voters. The Russian-speaking electorate has always been conservative," he added.

Samost highlighted that Madison's move to the Center Party hasn't had time fully to register with the voters, adding it is also possible to overstate the Madison factor. He questioned whether any politician's move from one party to another has ever led to major changes in party ratings.

Voog said that while a politician's move can cause issues for the party being left behind – citing the example of Mark Soosaar, whose departure from politics in late 2016 had catastrophic effects for SDE in the Pärnu region – it is true that voters generally take time to register such changes.

Samost stressed that Madison is not the only well-known politician to switch parties recently.

He noted that members of the Center Party have also joined the Social Democrats (SDE) and Isamaa, which could confuse voters about where certain politicians currently call home.

Voog for his part said that former Center Party members joining SDE have helped that party maintain balanced support between Estonian and Russian-speaking voters.

In his view, younger politicians joining the party has also stabilized its support among younger voters – Center's other main bedrock had long been the "gray vote."

Kook said SDE benefits too from other parties moving to the right, leaving it to be the dominant left-leaning party, or perhaps the only one. Center also long had a socially more liberal wing, exemplified in recent years by Tanel Kiik.

Voog said that the divide between left-wing and right-wing politics is much more blurred than the divide between liberalism and conservatism.

As for Eesti 200, Kook noted that Kristina Kallas has been more visible than either of her two predecessors, Riigikogu Speaker Lauri Hussar and Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (Hussar replaced Kallas after first stint as Eesti 200 leader – ed.).

However, this leadership change, too, has not impacted on the party's ratings as yet.

According to Voog, Kallas hasn't positioned herself strongly as the party leader despite having been highly visible as education minister.

Kook disagreed with that viewpoint and suggested Kallas is trying to learn from SDE leader and Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets, who presents himself as an opposition-within-the-coalition sometimes.

However, whereas Läänemets has an easier time, ideologically speaking, to oppose the free-market oriented Reform Party, this is harder for Eesti 200 to do, since their worldviews are quite similar to Reform's in most spheres.

Samost agreed with Voog that voters don't yet see Kallas as the party's true leader. "Eesti 200 has always lacked a clear image, something that a party symbol or leader should help create," Samost said.

Kook highlighted that the Koos party, whose leader is currently in custody – the party has links with Russia - has yet managed to retain as high a rating as 15-percent support, among Russian-speaking voters.

On Isamaa, Samost noted that while the party's overall support remains strong, its support in Tallinn is still only 10 percent.

In his view, Isamaa's low rating in the capital is due to its participation in the coalition there, with Reform, Eesti 200 and SDE.

The proof is in the pudding in that Isamaa voters in Estonia's largest city have not returned to the fold in droves.

Kook disputed that, however, arguing that Isamaa's lower rating in Tallinn stems from two factors: The higher number and proportion of non-Estonian voters in the capital, plus the messages Isamaa has been projecting there.

A concrete example is Deputy Mayor Kristjan Järvan's statements, which have come off as irritating and off-putting to many voters, Kook said.

Samost, however, suggested that Järvan is the only person or factor at the moment keeping Isamaa visible in Tallinn; other local bosses Riina Solman and Tarmo Kruusimäe don't really resonate with voters, he said.

The panelists all agreed that the growing political diversity in Tallinn reduces the Center Party's chances of securing a majority in the next local government elections, however.

Center had long been dominant in Tallinn and also in Ida-Viru County, but signs of a turn of the tide were visible at least as early as the 2019 Riigikogu election, followed by the 2021 local elections, then the 2023 Riigikogu elections – as well as the two European elections in 2019 and this year.

The overall trend has been for Center's support to fall, even in traditional heartland areas, and from late 2021 the party could not rule in the capital alone, and had to be in coalition with SDE.

Following the vote of no confidence passing in Mihhail Kõlvart as mayor, in March this year, a rainbow coalition of Reform, Isamaa, SDE and Eesti 200 has been able to keep Center out of office altogther.

Finally, Russia's invasion of Ukraine from February 2022 brought the party under the spotlight.

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