Support for the Reform Party, the Social Democratic Party (SDE), the Center Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) converged in October, according to the most recent nationwide Kantar Emor poll commissioned by ERR.

The most popular political party in the country is still Isamaa, which was supported by 24 percent of respondents to the most recent survey. Isamaa has been the most popular party in Estonia for a full year now.

The Reform Party is the second most popular with 17 percent of the survey's respondents saying they would vote for the prime minister's party.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE) is close behind with 15 percent, the Center Party is in fourth with 14 percent, while EKRE has 13 percent.

Compared to September, EKRE is the party that has increased its support the most. According to the survey results, Eesti 200, which is part of the current governing coalition, does not have enough support to exceed the electoral threshold.

Kantar Emor polling expert Aivar Voog said EKRE has regained the support of those who had previously abandoned the party in favor of the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid, ERK). If EKRE wants to regain its former support levels, it needs to gain the backing of those who would currently vote for Isamaa, he said.

"If Isamaa is currently in such a leading position and is in a strong position, it will be very difficult for EKRE to regain [that support]. It all depends on Isamaa, of course," Voog said.

According to EKRE board member Anti Poolamets, support for the party is also growing because those who recently left have begun to return.

"Those who left did so because of emotions. We're going to hold the line for a while, though. First, there's a pause for calm and then you can start to come back," Poolamets said.

Of the parliamentary parties, Eesti 200 currently does not have enough support to pass the electoral threshold. According to Voog, it is currently difficult for Eesti 200 to attract new supporters.

"They are still the newest party in the governing coalition and the party with the weakest image. It seems that a change of leadership is not enough and something more fundamental has to happen," he said.

To regain support, the party needs to work harder, said Eesti 200 vice chair Aleksei Jašin.

"[It will take] clear decisions, clear communication, courageously standing up for our values, and at the end of the day, hopefully, the ratings will come back."

However, Parempoolsed, who did not get over the electoral threshold in 2023, would, as things stand be able to make it into the Riigikogu. The party managed to pull in a number of new voters during the recent European Parliament elections.

"Their support numbers depend very much on how the governing parties are doing," explained Voog.

Parempoolsed leader Lavly Perling said the party's membership was growing and it is now preparing for next year's local elections.

"The same thing remains true for Parempoolsed as always – for us, posters aren't the priority, but it's the content that counts. And we are glad that the content is reaching more and more people," said Perling.

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