The research, conducted on a weekly basis by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think thank the Institute for Social Research (Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found Isamaa's rating rose by 1.4 percentage points over the past week, to 30.6 percent.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal's Reform Party picked up 18.1 percent of support according to Norstat, a rise of 2.2 percentage points over the past fortnight.

The Social Democrats (SDE), also in office, polled at 13.7 percent, a little over a percentage point ahead of the opposition Center Party (12.5 percent) and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE, 12.4 percent).

A large gulf remains in support between these five and the sixth Riigikogu party, Eesti 200, in office with Reform and SDE, which polled at 3.9 percent.

In total, 35.7 percent of respondents to the Norstat poll said they would vote for one of the three coalition parties, compared with 55.5 percent who would do so for the opposition parties.

Norstat polled just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (18+) over the past four weeks, online and over the phone. The company conducts its polls on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks, and excludes undecided responses in its final results.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of the party by support – so Isamaa as most-supported carries a +/-1.74-percent error margin, compared with +/-0.73 for Eesti 200 as the least-supported of the Riigikogu parties.

The next elections in Estonia are to local government, in October 2025.

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