Ratings: Isamaa loses support as Reform closes gap
The opposition Isamaa party, the long-term leader in party ratings in Estonia, has been losing support in recent weeks, while the coalition Reform Party has been closing the gap in second place.
The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute of Social Studies, found Isamaa was supported by 26.6 percent of respondents, compared with 19.8 percent for Reform Party by 19.8 percent.
Isamaa's rating has dropped by 1.4 percentage points over the past week and by four percentage points over the month; immediate reasons for this are not abundantly clear, though the party remains the clear leader in terms of ratings overall, and with other pollsters.
Reform is moving in the opposite direction and has seen a 1.2-percentage point rise over the week; 2.4 percentage points over the past fortnight.
The gap between Isamaa and the prime minister's party, Reform, is now 6.8 percentage points, while the latter leads the Social Democrats (SDE) in third place, by 5.6 points.
SDE, in office with Reform and Eesti 200, polled at 14.2 percent this week according to Norstat, with the opposition Center Party practicelly neck-and-neck at 14 percent, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) not far behind at 12.7 percent.
Eesti 200 has been in the doldrums for roughly as long as Isamaa has been high in support, mainly following a series of scandals which dogged the party last year, and currently polls at 4.1 percent according to Norstat – below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in any electoral district at a Riigikogu election.
The three coalition partners combined – Reform, SDE and Eesti 200 – polled at 38.1 percent this week, compared with 53.3 percent for the three opposition parties: Isamaa, Center and EKRE.
Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks.
The latest results cover the period November 4 to December 2, during which time 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were quizzed, over the phone and online.
Norstat says it weights its samples based on various socio-economic indicators and claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of a party by support. So for instance the current margin of error for Isamaa as most-supported party is +/-1.68 percent, while Eesti 200's results come with a +/-0.75 margin of error.
The next elections in Estonia are to the local municipalities, in October next year.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mirjam Mäekivi
