In second place remains the coalition Reform Party, whose rating rose by 1.3 percentage points on the week, according to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies.

These changes reflect shifting political preferences among voters and provide insight into the evolving political landscape.
Isamaa's rating is now 28 percent compared with Reform's at 18.7 percent according to Norstat.

Following these are the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) and the opposition Center Party, neck-and-neck at 13.9 percent and 13.8 percent respectively, while the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) is not far behind, garnering a rating of 12.5 percent this week.

Eesti 200 polled at 4.2 percent, again below the 5-percent threshold required to win Riigikogu seats.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed was ahead of Eesti 200 with a 4.6-percent rating. ERK, a breakaway party made up of former EKRE members, and the Estonian Greens (Rohelised) polled at 1.5 percent, while the pro-Kremlin KOOS/Vmeste party picked up 1 percent of support in the latest Norstat poll.

These support levels translate into a potential seat distribution in the Riigikogu, as calculated by University of Tartu political scientist Martin Mölder, as follows: Isamaa would secure 34 mandates (compared with its current 11), the Reform Party 22 seats (38 at present), SDE 16 (14 at present), Center 15 (compared with six at the moment), and EKRE 14 (currently 11).

This distribution underscores the dominant position of Isamaa, but also highlights the strong collective presence of opposition parties.

In total, 36.8 percent of respondents supported coalition parties, while 54.3 percent expressed support for opposition parties.

Once a month, in addition to party preferences, Norstat asks respondents to evaluate the government and prime minister's performance.

The latest results indicate that 30 percent of respondents believe the government is doing its job "very well" or "quite well," whereas 63 percent feel the government is performing "quite poorly" or "very poorly."

Prime Minister Kristen Michal's (Reform) approval ratings reflect a similar trend.
While 27 percent of respondents said they approved of his performance, 45 percent disapproved.

Norstat compiles its survey on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over the preceding four weeks.

The figures above cover the period October 28 to November 24, when 4,001 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age were quizzed. Norstat says it weights its samples to various socio-economic indicators.

Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of the party by support. For example, Isamaa as the most-supported party comes with a margin of error of +/-1.71 percent, whereas for Eesti 200 the margin is +/-0.76 percent.

The next elections are to the local municipalities, in October 2025.

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