Poll: Over half of Estonian residents predict Kamala Harris US election win
Around half of respondents to a recent survey in Estonia believe Kamala Harris will win next month's United States presidential election, while just a fifth handed it to Donald Trump.
Not only that, but a majority of respondents to the survey preferred the Democratic candidate as leader of the Western world's most powerful nation – figures which were similarly played out in survey respondents in Latvia and Lithuania as well, despite all three nations' tendency towards conservatism.
Pollsters Kantar Emor conducted the survey, and examined both the preferences, ie. who they would like to win, and attitudes – who they think will win – of Baltic states' residents concerning the November 5 election.
As to the question, "If you were to vote in the American election for president, who would you vote for," a total of 53 percent of all Estonian residents responding said they would like to see Harris installed in the White House, compared with 19 percent going for the Republican candidate Trump. Twenty-eight percent of respondents were in the "don't know" category.
Either way, nearly two-thirds of respondents also said they thought the U.S. presidential elections would have a significant impact on their country's economy, trade, and peace, compared with less than 5 percent who think it will have no effect – the proportions were around the same for Latvia and Lithuania as they were for Estonia.
Tellingly, many respondents said America's global position will strengthen, or at least remain the same, with Harris as president, whereas it would diminish with a second Trump term, respondents found.
Kantar Emor's lead researcher, Aivar Voog, also noted a difference in responses between those of native-speaking Estonian respondents, and those of "other nationalities," overwhelmingly referring to Russian-speaking citizens and residents.
"In Estonia, differences based on nationality play a role in the preferences for the presidential candidate," Voog said, adding that those of "other nationalities" were far less enamored of Harris – though they were not particularly drawn to Trump either.
"While 66 percent of ethnic Estonians prefer Harris and 16 percent favor the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, such a preference for Harris is not apparent among respondents of other nationalities," Voog said.
With this demographic, 47 percent reported being neutral, while the support for Harris (27 percent) and Trump (25 percent) was almost evenly divided up.
Overall, around 30 percent of respondents remained neutral on the topic.
Figures were similar for Latvia, though Harris did better in the Kantar Emor poll in Lithuania, rating at 70 percent – something which Voog put down to a lower proportion of residents and citizens of "other nationalities" in the southernmost Baltic state.
Differences were also found in Estonian responses based on party preferences.
For instance, Voog noted, supporters of the more Atlanticist Reform Party and Isamaa "overwhelmingly favor Kamala Harris."
While the more populist Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK) and Center Party saw much greater support for Trump among their voters – as high as 70 percent in the case of EKRE.
One of several factors that could explain the relatively strong showing for Harris is the situation with Ukraine and concerns whether a Trump victory would change things here, not necessarily for the better, with a knock-on effect felt in the Baltic states too.
The survey also asked whether the U.S. should increase its aid to Ukraine.
Forty-eight percent of respondents in Estonia said it should; the figures were comparable in Lithuania and Latvia.
However, "here too, national differences are evident: Sixty-one percent of ethnic Estonians believe that the U.S. should allocate more resources to help Ukraine, with only 5 percent supporting a reduction in aid," Voog said.
This compares with around 20 percent of respondents from "other nationalities" saying U.S. aid to Ukraine should be increased, while 41 percent said it should be reduced.
"Similar differences based on nationality are observed in Latvia," Voog added.
The Kantar Emor survey was conducted online September 19-26, quizzing 3,160 respondents from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, aged 16 and above (see also infographic above).
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Editor: Andrew Whyte