The recent turmoil surrounding national defense and the Ministry of Defense is not just another leadership or trust crisis for the Reform Party, but a far more fundamental challenge. Defense policy was the party's last truly credible area of competence; its reputation for sound economic policy has long since eroded. The ministry scandal has seriously shaken confidence in their core field of expertise.

Bringing in Martin Herem as minister carries a major risk for the party. A highly independent minister could, by revealing new problems, deliver a fatal blow to the Reform Party's already fragile credibility in defense policy. Or, conversely, through effective and constructive work, he could restore trust.

Before the 2023 elections, the Reform Party was highly successful in convincing voters of three things.

First, that they were the most competent party on economic issues — the ones who bring prosperity and keep public finances in order. 

Second, that under their leadership, the welfare state — pensions, family policy, healthcare, education — was in safe hands and would not face cuts. 

Third, and perhaps most importantly, that they were the most reliable force in countering the Russian threat, with strong security and defense expertise unmatched by their competitors.

The party's once‑dominant image of economic competence has now been heavily devalued. Years of economic stagnation, tax hikes, and fiscal problems have stripped it of its former strength.

Their credibility in welfare policy remains, but defending the welfare state has never been the Reform Party's ideological hallmark. It cannot serve as the sole foundation for the next election campaign. That left defense competence and the ability to counter the Russian threat as their strongest remaining pillar.

The scandal at the end of Hanno Pevkur's term cracked that pillar. It still stands — barely — but another shake caused by a new scandal could topple it entirely.

This is where the "Herem factor" comes in. On one hand, the Reform Party made a brilliant PR move by bringing in the field's most respected expert to clean up its failures. If Herem puts things in order, they will be in order for the government and the Reform Party as well. On the other hand, if he starts digging deeper into decisions and non‑decisions of recent years, he may uncover something that delivers a devastating blow to the party's credibility.

There are three possible scenarios.

In the first, Herem enthusiastically begins to fix the field but discovers that leadership, information flows, and procurement processes have been in disarray for years. Worst of all would be if some issues date back long enough to show that the Reform Party has not managed its key policy area properly despite its polished public façade.

In the second scenario, the Reform Party feels tempted to strike back at Herem, hinting that he himself was commander of the EDF during the same period and shares responsibility. A blame‑shifting ping‑pong begins. This would be the worst outcome: trust in national defense would suffer, and both the governing party and Herem would end up in the public's "mud league." Meanwhile, hands would be rubbed together across the eastern border.

The third scenario — the one the Reform Party hopes for — is that Herem fixes the problems, and although some credit goes to him, the political beneficiary is the Reform Party. They could launch a pre‑election narrative: "Yes, we made mistakes, we admitted them, we brought in the best minds to fix the field, and the job got done. And what do you, the conservatives, have to offer in response?"

It is difficult to predict which scenario will unfold. One thing is clear: over the next six months, Herem will not only determine how well Estonia's national defense is managed. He may also decide whether the Reform Party retains its last strong competence card for the next elections — or whether it enters the campaign with the most damaged reputation in its history.

If the Reform Party is left with no policy area in which a significant share of voters believes they outperform others, they have real reason to fear the next elections.

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