Eesti 200's political journey has been a bit of a rollercoaster. While the party was left out of the Riigikogu in 2019, when the Ukraine war broke out a mere three years later, they were only six points behind the then most popular Reform Party.

Then started Eesti 200's longer decline, in which the 2023 Riigikogu elections provided a brief respite. With its rating consistently below the [5 percent] election threshold in the last few months, Eesti 200 recently elected a new old chairman who faces the daunting task of revitalizing the party. Eesti 200 is placing its final bets, and they are for life or death.

Support for the party soared – Eesti 200 went from less than 5 percent to almost 20 percent – during a time when the Reform Party and the rest of the liberal wing of Estonian politics was weak, and there simply weren't any alternatives. Eesti 200's rating first spiked in late 2020 when the marriage equality referendum was on the agenda and the non-conservative part of Estonia's political system found itself in a state of uncomfortable excitement.

Their second rise came toward the end of 2021, after the now ruling Reform Party had battled and lost, at least in terms of the people's trust, the coronavirus and energy crises. This brought the squirrels' (Reform Party mascot – ed.) rating down to around 20 percent. The Social Democrats, under chairman Indrek Saar at the time, were still in a remarkably poor state.

It was possible for voters to believe in a new party, unsmeared by politics, which promised to do everything better and differently. A party that looked like it knew what it was doing and had a plan for Estonia. Voters were looking for an alternative, and it seemed one existed.

Russia's war on Ukraine changed the situation, as it helped the Reform Party find its footing again. The ratings of the squirrels and Eesti 200 started moving in opposite directions. There was just six points between the parties in March 2022, while this had grown to more than 25 points by the end of summer, with 2023 Riigikogu elections looming no less.

To the surprise of many, Lauri Hussar was elected Eesti 200's new chairman by a relatively narrow margin over Kristina Kallas. In hindsight, this could have been the moment things started going wrong for the party.

In its general elections campaign, Eesti 200 positioned itself very close to the Reform Party, down to telling its voters that the best way to ensure a Reform-led government, and avoid at all costs an EKRE cabinet, was to vote Eesti 200. This approach cost the party a considerable chunk of its recent identity. We can add to this the scandal of former Eesti 200 star member Johanna-Maria Lehtme, infighting and intrigue, as well as another leadership shuffle in the fall of 2023.

While Kristina Kallas represented, at least for a part of voters, a new and pure force made up of experts and ready to air out political corridors, Margus Tsahkna's conduct and messages were rather those of a typical politician who is hardly seen as a source of new and exciting things. Tsahkna, therefore, marked the start of the next stage in Eesti 200's decline.

It is also noteworthy that Tsahkna taking over running Eesti 200 coincided with Reform's own decline under Kaja Kallas, whereas their former voters no longer looked to Eesti 200 for an alternative but rather in the direction of Isamaa.

The difficult situation culminated in Eesti 200 failing at the European Parliament elections this summer. The party that had promised new quality in politics and a long plan for Estonia failed to get a single member elected.

Kristina Kallas is back now, but her options are much more limited compared to the last time, courtesy of Eesti 200's misadventures. It is no longer possible to sell voters on the narrative that Eesti 200 is somehow an innovative party capable of doing things differently. No one believes that today.

This means that to rise from the ashes, Eesti 200 needs a completely new identity. Denouncing the interim years' blunders and picking up where the party left off before, which seems to be the plan, is not enough. The task is all the more difficult for Kallas, as she in a way symbolizes what was and what ended up destroying the party's reputation. It hardly matters that most of the responsibility falls on the two leaders who succeeded her.

Eesti 200 has 13 Riigikogu members, all of whom will be out of a job in the spring of 2027 if recent trends hold. While this might not be a problem for some, as they can go back to doing what they did before joining the parliament, others have taken a liking to the political life and do not wish to give it up.

Should Eesti 200's rating remain close to or below the election threshold, the latter will be tempted to look to other parties. Some probably already are, and while time is running short, they have few good options. Being desperate in politics is a good way to get taken advantage of, instead of people sincerely wishing you well. And this applies to both parties and politicians.

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