Support for the Reform Party rose to 15 percent in September. A month earlier, in August, support for the prime minister's party stood at 13 percent, while in May it hit a record low of 10 percent.

Emor research expert Aivar Voog said the Reform Party has received a great deal of media attention recently, although much of the coverage has been critical, including over arms procurement.

"The recovery in the Reform Party's rating is particularly noticeable among older voters. However, the polling data does not allow us to conclude that media coverage caused the increase in support," Voog said.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed recorded its best-ever result in September, with support rising to 10 percent. Support for Parempoolsed stood at 7 percent in August.

Center's rating falls for fourth consecutive month

In a month-on-month comparison, support fell the most for both Isamaa and the Center Party. Isamaa had the support of 24 percent of respondents in September and the Center Party 17 percent. A month earlier, support for each party was 2 percentage points higher.

"Support for the Center Party fell for the fourth consecutive month. Taking the margin of error into account, the Center Party and the Social Democratic Party are now tied for second and third place," Voog said.

Support for the Social Democratic Party stood at 17 percent in September, down from 18 percent in August, putting it level with the Center Party despite the slight decline. As recently as June, support for the Center Party stood at 22 percent.

EKRE was in fifth place with 13 percent support, up 1 percentage point from the previous month.

Eesti 200 had 2 percent support, while the Greens, ERK and Koos each had 1 percent.

Riigikogu opposition parties had the support of 71 percent of respondents in September, down from 74 percent in August, while the coalition parties had 17 percent support, up from 15 percent in August.

'Don't know' vote grows among non-ethnic Estonians

The share of respondents with no party preference, or those who answered "don't know," rose to 30 percent. The increase occurred primarily among respondents of non-Estonian ethnicity.

When respondents with no party preference are also included, Isamaa had 15.6 percent support in September, followed by the Social Democratic Party with 12.7 percent, the Center Party with 11.9 percent, the Reform Party with 10.1 percent, EKRE with 9.3 percent, Parempoolsed with 7.0 percent and Eesti 200 with 1.2 percent.

Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa ranked first in September with 27.5 percent support. It was followed by the Social Democratic Party with 19.2 percent, the Reform Party with 17 percent, EKRE with 14.3 percent and Parempoolsed with 11.2 percent. The Center Party had 6.2 percent support among ethnic Estonian respondents, while Eesti 200 had 1.7 percent.

Among respondents of non-Estonian ethnicity, the Center Party retained a clear lead with 63.9 percent support. The Social Democratic Party had 9.8 percent support among this group, Isamaa 7.5 percent, EKRE 6.9 percent, the Reform Party 3.4 percent, Eesti 200 2.7 percent and Parempoolsed 2.2 percent.

Among Tallinn voters, the Center Party was the most popular with 26.2 percent support, although its lead over the Social Democratic Party has narrowed. Support for the Social Democrats in the capital stood at 22.9 percent in September.

The Reform Party had 13.3 percent support in Tallinn, EKRE 13 percent and Isamaa, which holds the mayor's office, ranked fifth with 12.6 percent. Parempoolsed had 9.6 percent support in Tallinn and Eesti 200 1.4 percent.

The Center Party also held a clear lead in Ida-Viru County, while the Social Democratic Party ranked first in Tartu and Jõgeva counties for the first time. Isamaa ranked first in all other regions.

Men prefer Isamaa, women the Social Democrats

Among male voters, Isamaa ranked first with 29.9 percent support, compared with 18.9 percent among women. EKRE and Parempoolsed also had higher support among men than among women.

Among female voters, the Social Democratic Party was the most popular choice, with 23.1 percent support. Among men, support for the Social Democrats stood at just 10.8 percent. The Center Party, Reform Party and Eesti 200 also had somewhat higher support among women than among men.

By education level, Isamaa ranked first among respondents with both basic and secondary education. Among respondents with higher education, the Social Democratic Party was the most popular choice.

The Social Democratic Party ranked first in the younger age groups, those aged 18-24 and 25-34. In the oldest age group, those aged 75 and over, the Reform Party and Center Party were tied for first place. Isamaa ranked first among those aged 35-49 and 50-64. Among those aged 65-74, Isamaa and the Center Party were tied for first place.

Emor surveyed 1,535 voting-age citizens across Estonia online and by telephone from September 14–23. With a sample of this size, the maximum margin of error is ±2.2 percentage points. More information about the ratings is available on ERR's ratings page.

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