Jaak Madison joining Center has not impacted party's rating

Former Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) politician Jaak Madison joining the Center Party early on in his second mandate as an MEP may have signaled the latter party's shift toward a more conservative stance, but so far this has neither boosted nor harmed the party's overall support, nor has it led to greater support among native Estonian speaking voters so far, a recent survey found.
Similarly, the return of Kristina Kallas as the leader of Eesti 200 has yet to affect the party's ratings, the survey, commissioned by ERR and conducted by pollsters Kantar Emor, also revealed.
According to a survey commissioned by ERR and conducted by Kantar Emor, Isamaa continues to lead as the most popular party, with 25 percent support in September. This is an increase from 23 percent in August, though still lower than the 28 percent seen in July.
Kantar Emor conducts its ratings survey monthly and the latest one sees Isamaa remain as the most-supported party at 25 percent – down on the 28 percent seen in July, but an improvement on August's rating of 23 percent.
In second place lies the Reform Party, maintaining an 18 percent approval rating and unchanged from August according to Kantar.
Reform's coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SDE), is in third place with 16 percent support, down from 18 percent the previous month.
The Center Party remains fourth, holding steady at 14 percent support over the past four months.
In looking at Center's rating more deeply, then so far hopes that Jaak Madison's arrival, after joining Center on August 22, would boost the party's ratings have yet to materialize.
Among native Estonian-speaking respondents, the Center Party's support remains a paltry 3 percent – the party's bedrock support has traditionally lain within Estonia's Russian-speaking populace, though movement of Center supporters, particularly Estonian-speaking ones, has in recent years been two-way, as some have gone on to support EKRE.
EKRE's support has stabilized at 10 percent. This follows a summer of upheaval with internal disputes and a large exodus of former members and MPs, including some quite prominent names.
Next up is the non-parliamentary party Parempoolsed, which saw their support drop by two percentage points in September, to 5 percent – the minimum needed to win seats under Estonia's d'Hondt electoral system.
Change in Eesti 200 leader not translated into support rise
Eesti 200, despite the leadership change, has not seen any improvement in its support, which remains at 4 percent.
This is the same as Kantar reported in August, and below the threshold required to win seats.
Newly formed party the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK) also polled at 4 percent.
This party is formed around a nucleus of former EKRE members who left that party in summer as noted.
The non-parliamentary, pro-Kremlin Koos party polled at 3 percent, while the Estonian Greens (Rohelised) managed 1 percent; the remaining registered parties registered below 1 percent.
Not only is the 5-percent threshold a significant level of support, but so to is a 2-percent vote level. At or above this total at a Riigikogu election, a party qualifies for state support.
Overall, support for the three coalition parties, Reform, SDE and Eesti 200, totaled 38 percent in September, compared with 39 percent in August.
The three Riigikogu opposition parties combined: EKRE, Isamaa and Center, picked up 49 percent according to Kantar, up from 46 percent in August.
Voter Preferences Including "Undecided" Respondents
A total of 26 percent of respondents in the September survey said they were undecided about their political preferences.
If these respondents are factored in, Isamaa's support falls to 20 percent, Reform's to 13 percent and SDE's to 10 percent.
The Center Party had by this methodology 9 percent support, EKRE 7 percent, and the Parempoolsed 4 percent.
Both Eesti 200 and ERK were supported by 3 percent of the total with unpledged respondents included, while Koos and the Greens lay at 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Support among Estonian voters
Among native-speaking Estonian voters, Isamaa leads with 31 percent support, followed by the Reform Party on 22 percent, and SDE on 16 percent.
EKRE had 11 percent, then Parempoolsed at 6 percent and Eesti 200 and ERK both at 5 percent.
The Center Party however continued to struggle with this demographic, polling at just 3 percent support.
Conversely, among non-native-speaking Estonian voters, the Center Party dominates at 54 percent.
Both SDE and Koos enjoy significant backing from this demographic too, at 15 percent apiece.
Isamaa's low support in Tallinn
In Tallinn alone the Center Party, where until recently it held sway on the city government, leads with 31 percent support, followed by SDE and the Reform Party, at 18 percent each.
Despite being the leading party nationwide, Isamaa only commands 10 percent support in the capital.
The Center Party is also ahead in Ida-Viru County, the other area where it traditionally drew much of its support.
Isamaa is the most popular party in all other regions, though sharing the top spot with Reform in the City of Tartu, Tartu County and neighboring Jõgeva County.
Tartu has long been to Reform as Tallinn is to Center, save that Reform is still in office in Estonia's second city (and is in coalition in Tallinn with Isamaa, SDE and Eesti 200).
Kantar Emor conducted the above survey between September 12 and 18 polling 1,553 voting-age citizens across Estonia, online and by phone.
Kantar claims a maximum margin of error for the sample of +/- 2.2 percent.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Urmet Kook