The survey, compiled by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think thank the Institute of Social Studies, reported that Isamaa, also in opposition, continues to lead with a rating of 28.2 percent, followed by the Reform Party at 18.7 percent, and the Center Party at 13.7 percent.

While Isamaa and Reform's support has remained relatively stable, Center have risen to third place.

The coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) has arrested its five-week decline, and polled at 13.4 percent in the latest Norstat poll, slightly up from the 12.7 percent posted last week.

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) follows SDE, trailing by 0.7 percentage points at 12.7 percent. EKRE is an opposition party.

Eesti 200, in office with Reform and SDE, has seen a fall in its rating to 4.3 percent, falling behind the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed, which now has 4.5 percent support. Both parties are below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats at a Riigikogu election, but whereas Parempoolsed, founded in 2022, has no seats, Eesti 200 has 13.

Overall, 36.4 percent of respondents to Norsat's poll pledged their support for one of the coalition parties, while 54.6 percent said they backed on of the three opposition parties (those who picked a party not currently represented at the Riigikogu or who were undecided made up the balance).

University of Tartu political scientist Martin Mölder calculated seat distributions based on the latest Norstat ratings, and found it would give Isamaa potentially 35 seats, if an election were held today, more than double the party's current tally. The Reform Party would have 22 (down over 10), Center, 15 (up from the half-dozen currently held), with SDE and EKRE both also receiving 15 and 14 seats respectively.

Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over the preceding four weeks. Norstat claims a martin of error in direct proportion to the size of a party by support, so, whereas the error margin for Isamaa, is +/-1.71 percent, according to Norstat, that for Eesti 200 is +/-0.77 percent.

The latest aggregated four-week survey quizzed around 4,000 people of Riigikogu voting age.

The next elections in Estonia are to the local municipalities, in October 2025.

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