The nationwide survey is conducted on a monthly basis by pollsters Kantar Emor and is commissioned by the ERR newsroom.

The most supported party remained the opposition Isamaa, with a 24-percent rating. The party, which saw former prime minister and former Center leader Jüri Ratas join early on this year, has topped Kantar Emor's polls for nearly a year now.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal's party, Reform, placed second in October according to Kantar Emor, at 17 percent support, down from the 18 percent posted last month.

Reform is closely followed by a trifecta of parties, one of them in office – the Social Democrats (SDE) who polled at 15 percent according to Kantar, and the other two in opposition: The Center Party (14 percent) and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), at 13 percent. Both the latter two parties have seen large-scale defections including of prominent members this year.

All-in-all this means three parties are within two percentage points, and four within four percentage points, by Kantar's reckoning.

By trend, EKRE was the only one of these which managed to increase its support – from 10 percent in September. The other parties' ratings are largely unchanged on last month.

The newly formed Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK), which clustered around the nucleus of some former EKRE members, halved to 2 percent this month, Kantar finds.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed on the other hand rated at 6 percent in October, a significant tally since it is above the 5-percent threshold required to win seats under Estonia's d'Hondt system of proportional representation. The party's name ("Right wingers") mainly pertains to its economic worldview, and as such it is competition for Reform, Isamaa and Eesti 200.

The latter remains in the doldrums at just 3 percent support according to Kantar, despite having 13 Riigikogu seats. The other two major parties to fall below the 5-percent benchmark were the pro-Kremlin Koos/Vmeste party (2 percent), the Estonian Greens (Rohelised, also 2 percent), and another Russia-leaning party, the EÜVP (1 percent).

Overall the three coalition partners, Reform, SDE and Eesti 200, polled at 35 percent with Kantar Emor this month, compared with 52 percent for the opposition – Isamaa, EKRE and Center combined.

Results with 'can't say' included

Nearly 28 percent of respondents were in the "can't say" category.

These are factored out of the above results, but if they are included it gives Isamaa a substantially lower rating at 18 percent. Support for Reform (13 percent), SDE (11 percent), Center and EKRE (both 10 percent) is nearer to the first set of results by this methodology.

Parempoolsed is just on the electoral threshold at 5 percent if undecided voters are incorporated, but Eesti 200 polls at just 2 percent.

ERK, Koos and the Greens all polled at 1-2 percent with unpledged voter-respondents included.

By demographic, Isamaa was running at 29 percent support in October among native Estonian speakers, who make up around 80 percent of the country's population. Reform (20 percent), SDE (16 percent), EKRE (14 percent) were the other strong performers in this demographic, while Center polled at just 5 percent, behind Parempoolsed (7 percent). In summer, a former EKRE MEP joined Center, though this doesn't seem to have significantly altered the party's rating.

Among non-Estonian voters, meaning overwhelmingly the Russian-speaking minority, the Center Party pciked up 58 percent support. This demographic, principally in Tallinn and in Ida-Viru County, has traditionally been the bedrock support for Center though it has seen a decline in recent years. SDE and Koos (10 percent each) were the only other parties to rate in double figures with this segment of the population.

In the capital, the Center Party, in office alone for nearly two decades in Tallinn until early on this year, led with a 25 percent rating, followed by the Reform Party at 18 percent, SDE at 15 percent, and Isamaa at 14 percent. The latter three parties are now in a rainbow coalition in Tallinn together with Eesti 200.

Kantar Emor's latest survey polled 1,505 eligible Riigikogu voters (citizens age 18+) across Estonia, October 10-16.

Kantar Emor claims a margin of error of ±2.2 percent.

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