The Reform Party has been in power in Tartu for years, and according to political scientist Martin Mölder, the likelihood of the next mayor also coming from the Reform Party is high. However, compared to the previous local elections, the party's position in the university town has weakened. Meanwhile, Isamaa, which also tops nationwide polls, has strengthened its position and is seen by Mölder as Reform's main competitor in the upcoming elections.

"I think, in the end, the scales still slightly tip in favor of the Reform Party. Even though they are currently in a weaker position, they have been very strong in Tartu for a long time. Their party, in general, is highly effective and professional in running campaigns, so the battle between these two is likely to be very intense," Mölder said.

According to Tartu Postimees opinion editor Jüri Saar, there are several divisive issues in the university town, such as the construction of a cultural center in Central Park. However, the Reform Party's image in Tartu remains stronger and cleaner than at the national level.

"There haven't been any major crises or catastrophes," Saar noted.

Compared to Isamaa, the Reform Party has so far had a longer and more well-known list of candidates for the city council, Saar added.

The list is important because Tartu voters primarily like to choose candidates based on their names, said Eesti 200 leader Kristina Kallas. Still, she agrees that the Reform Party's position is undoubtedly weaker than in previous elections.

"In the past, the situation has been that the Reform Party was dominant and could simply decide who to bring on board. But today, that is likely no longer the case. It is possible that another party could win the election, or if the Reform Party does win, it will be by a very narrow margin. There are significantly more alternative coalition possibilities in Tartu than ever before," Kallas said.

Both Kallas and the leader of the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK) party, Silver Kuusik, said that change is needed in Tartu's leadership. Both parties hope to be part of the force that brings this change.

"We are definitely seeking a mandate from the people of Tartu, as the city needs a bit of a shake-up. The competition for power in Tartu is much fiercer now and there are many strong lead candidates whose debates — especially as potential mayoral candidates — will be very engaging," Kallas believes.

According to Kuusik, the key question is whether conservative forces can secure a place in the political landscape and push liberals into the opposition. "Or if that doesn't succeed, will there still be room to maneuver? If the Reform Party, the Social Democrats and Eesti 200 together secure enough seats to form a city government — which seems unlikely — it wouldn't bring significant change to Tartu," he said.

Political scientist Alar Kilp also noted that the Reform Party will certainly face competition, but Isamaa's relatively short candidate list in Tartu could actually work in its favor.

"It is not impossible that Isamaa could end up securing the mayor's office, which would make the party more attractive to potential allies. With more than six months to go, Isamaa could still become even stronger, but the Reform Party is also unlikely to sit back and watch," Kilp said.

According to Mölder, one of the key factors will be how strong of a candidate list Isamaa puts forward in Tartu.

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