Analyst: Bad economic climate shoring up support for opposition parties

The general negative economic climate and the realization of tax hikes ensure continued support for the three opposition parties, Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog said Friday.
Voog made his remarks on an ERR "Ratings special" webcast coinciding with the publication today of Kantar Emor's monthly political party ratings.
Voog was joined on the broadcast by ERR's Anvar Samost and Urmet Kook, to examine further why Isamaa continues to lead the party ratings with 26 percent support, why the Social Democrats (SDE) and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) have both seen small rises in support, and all other changes seen in the first Kantar ratings of the year.
Voog argued that the overall negative economic climate ensures lower support for coalition parties.
"For the coalition parties, the entire context, the general economic-political climate, is negative. It guarantees them a low in the ratings. But for the opposition, the backdrop is currently positive. And Isamaa has benefited the most from this. It doesn't even have a close competitor. When there is a close competitor, instability is also greater. There is a clear difference here between Isamaa and EKRE. And the Center Party operates entirely within its own niche," he said.
Kook said support of this kind is long-term guaranteed for Isamaa, as a result of the various tax decisions made by the coalition.
Voog agreed, saying: "Quite. And a situation of that kind is favorable for Isamaa. Right now they don't have internal conflicts either, quite the reverse; we get occasional news reports about someone joining Isamaa," referring to high-profile politicians joining the party.
Anvar Samost highlighted the upcoming local government elections in October, and noted that at some point, the parties will initiate their more visible election campaigns.
"The question arises as to how this will shift power dynamics," Samost said, referring to the local elections results, often used as a bellwether for the Riigikogu elections, which come around a year-and-a-half after the municipal elections.
"If the Center Party performs well in Tallinn [in the local elections in October], their support nationwide could also grow," Samost said.
On the other hand: "For Eesti 200, the local elections probably don't bode well," he added.
Voog added that the true beneficiaries of the upcoming local elections could be Parempoolsed, who will be contesting their first municipal elections and will get the opportunity to gain more visibility.
According to Voog, the Reform Party, Isamaa, and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) are all in a similar position in the capital, in the context of these elections.
Kook said that an important question facing the Center Party is whether they will be in the next Tallinn coalition, after leaving office in spring 2024.
"If they aren't, it could do them a disservice. It could give them a certain 'loser' image," said Kook.
Samost noted that, at the same time, the Center Party, even as an election winner - in terms of winning more seats than any other party - might be left out of the coalition, which would have entirely different effects on their support.
Kook questioned if other participants on the show could recall a time when there was a party in government at the national level whose rating consistently stuck at around the 3-4 percent mark, referring to Eesti 200.
Voog recalled that Res Publica, a forerunner to today's Isamaa, or the People's Union (Rahvaliit), in much the same way a progenitor of EKRE, might have been in a similar situation once, and warned that such long-term low points in party support do not bode well for any party.
Kook said that much depends on how Eesti 200 performs in the elections in Tallinn and Tartu; Eesti 200 is currently in the Tallinn coalition too, with Reform, SDE, and Isamaa.
In fact, these elections are an existential matter for the party.
"If they fail to gain seats at the councils of both cities, it would be highly consequential for the party's continued existence," Kook said.
Voog said that the situation for Eesti 200 is further complicated by the fact that Parempoolsed has claimed the role of offering a right-wing alternative, economically speaking, to those parties promoting similar ideologies who are in government (two of the three coalition parties in effect – ed.).
Up to now, Eesti 200 had played the role of offering that alternative.
According to Samost, the Reform Party is more than anything else holding back a rise in support for Eesti 200.
He also noted that the support for the Reform Party, as the prime minister's party, would in the normal run of things be the last to collapse in the coalition; the support for other coalition partners tends to decline first, in other words.
As for Parempoolsed, Kook pointed out that their support is higher among male voters.
This is because of a focus on: "Topics like economics and finance. They haven't addressed social and cultural policy, particularly."
"Their support is also low among non-Estonian speakers," Kook continued, referring mainly to Estonian citizens whose first language is Russian.

To remedy this: "They need to reach other voters to take the next step in their party's development," Kook added.
Voog added that Isamaa did manage to achieve this step; they succeeded in broadening their voter base, to include some support from among the Russian-speaking demographic.
Samost noted that Isamaa's support among non-Estonian speakers is currently 10 percent according to Kantar, saying: "I don't even remember such a high support level for Isamaa among non-Estonian speakers."
Voog also pointed out that support with this demographic has begun to recover for SDE.
Recent events in Narva, where Katri Raik, an SDE member, has been reinstalled as mayor, may have influenced this.
As for EKRE support, Kook said that this has been restored by voters who had temporarily moved to ERK, a group formed by EKRE defectors, returning to the EKRE fold, especially after prominent politicians Ants Frosch and Henn Põlluaas, themselves EKRE defectors to ERK, left the latter party (but for Isamaa in this case – ed.).
Samost said that EKRE had attempted to use the re-entry into office of Donald Trump as U.S. president to increase their support.
Kook related that they have played themselves back into the picture somewhat thanks to an association with Trump's image – EKRE leader Martin Helme was invited to the inauguration ceremony, one of only two Estonians to be so honored – leading to a certain internal optimism.
Samost countered by saying that this optimism stems mainly from the fact that ERK, the party founded from a split in EKRE and to challenge the latter, has performed notably poorly since it was set up last summer.
Still, EKRE has work still to do, Samost said.
"EKRE has lost direction since the big wave of filibustering and is still searching for that [direction]."
EKRE coordinated a Riigikogu filibuster much of the latter half of 2023 into the first half of 2024.
"It seems to me that they haven't regained the clarity of their message from a few years ago. For the voter in Võru County, putting on a Trump hat is not sufficient," said Samost.
Kook wanted to talk further about the rise in support for SDE.
Voog said that the recent surge in support for that party might be incidental, due to demographics.
"The rise occurred with young people, whose preferences constantly fluctuate. A more stable rise may have occurred among other ethnic groups however," Voog said, again referring to native Russian speakers.
According to Kook, SDE have also been able to play the role of being the defenders of the "gray passport" holders, who in practice are usually Russian-speaking, in the debate surrounding changes to the electoral law.
Voog stressed that the Center Party can't gain much here as they are not decision-makers in this process, not being in government.
Samost, however, pointed out that a recent Norstat survey shows weakening numbers for SDE.
"The most pressing issue for them is their degree of responsibility tied to tax hikes," Samost went on.
Kook also discussed the issue of ministerial trustworthiness, noting that Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) has been found, according to a recent poll, most trustworthy, while the least popular with the public at present are Minister of Economic Affairs and Industry Erkki Keldo (Reform) and Minister of Regional and Agricultural Affairs Piret Hartman (SDE).
"It's not enough to get to be a minister and gain recognition in the space of a few months," Voog said.
"Low popularity also hinders the impact and dissemination of ideas to the wider public," he added.
Samost expressed surprise at the low support both for Keldo and for Hartman, saying that their roles, given the nature of their positions, are actually ideal in gaining political capital.
According to Samost, Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) also has reason to worry.
"He has seemed to be erratic and nervous in recent weeks," Samost said.
A recent confrontation practically engineered with Center Party MP Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart has not benefited Michal, but on the other hand "has increased Kovalenko-Kõlvart's visibility."
"Why Michal needed this confrontation is unclear," he went on, referring to remarks about how "easy it is to be stupid" the prime minister had made quietly, but not quite out of mic range, at a recent prime minister's question time and following a quizzing by Kovalenko-Kõlvart.
Still, defense of the nation can always be relied on.
"The call to raise defense spending to 5 percent [of GDP] is evidence of a point in time where Michal is forced to concede that the [security] crisis is hindering governance."
"This [hiking defense spending to 5 percent call] is a message that instills confidence in voters. Within the government, it means reopening the entire taxation and state budget discussions," Samost went on.
Kook added that Michal did say he excluded further tax hikes in relation to this – a claim which Samost argued is ultimately unrealistic.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Andrew Whyte