The research, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found this week that Isamaa was supported by 30.7 percent of respondents, compared with 30.6 percent for all three coalition parties: Reform, the Social Democrats (SDE), and Eesti 200.

Norstat conducts its survey on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over the preceding four weeks; the latest aggregate results reflect the polling period from January 13 to February 9.

The Reform Party, the prime minister's party, and the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) were neck-and-neck in second place with a rating of 16.8 percent according to Norstat.

While support for Isamaa and Reform is essentially unchanged from the previous week, EKRE's support has been rising—by a little more than four percentage points over the past two months.

The opposition Center Party is not far behind EKRE at 14.1 percent, while SDE found 11.3 percent support.

Eesti 200 polled at just 2.5 percent, well below the threshold (of 5 percent) required to win seats under Estonia's d'Hondt proportional representation electoral system, but above the 2 percent needed to qualify for support from the state.

Norstat has been tracking Eesti 200's support in its party preference surveys almost since the party's founding in 2018, and the current level is an all-time low over that period.

The party has 13 seats at the Riigikogu, however, and so is essential in maintaining the coalition's majority in parliament.

As noted, 30.6 percent of respondents pledged support for one of the three coalition parties, but the figure for the three opposition partners was over double that, at 61.6 percent.

This also puts the coalition at an overall lowest rating since Norstat began compiling its weekly poll in its current form, in January 2019.

Norstat quizzed just over 4,000 people in the four-week period leading to the current survey and claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of a party by support. So for instance, the margin of error for Isamaa's results, as the most supported party, stands at +/-1.75 percent, compared with +/-0.59 percent for Eesti 200 as the least supported.

Respondents to the survey were Estonian citizens aged 18 and over—in other words, all were eligible to vote in a Riigikogu election if one were to be held right now—and Norstat says it uses a combined online and over-the-phone survey methodology, weighting its sample along various socio-economic lines.

The next direct election in Estonia is to the 79 municipalities, in October this year.

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